Pick
(916) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have had a disappointing season so far, after spending an awful lot of money in the off-season. While they still haven't come anywhere close to living up to expectations, things have turned around in recent weeks. The bats have started to come alive, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are once again among the leaders in home runs in the AL. The pitching staff is also starting to come around, and the most encouraging news Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey appears to be getting some of his swagger back. Dickey (4-5, 4.50 ERA) has won consecutive starts, and he's allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his last three outings. He went a season-high eight innings, surrendering only four hits in a win over the Rays in his last start. He certainly has been successful against Baltimore, with a record of 2-0, 0.56 ERA over his last two starts. The O's send Freddy Garcia to the mound, looking for his first victory of 2013. Garcia (0-2, 4.84 ERA) allowed three runs on a pair of home runs over six innings in a loss to the Yankees in his last start. He's given up six home runs in his four appearances, and that doesn't bode well considering that Toronto has two of the top home run hitters in the majors. Bautista is 5-for-11 lifetime, with a pair of homers versus Garcia, while Adam Lind is 4-for-8, also with a pair of home runs. Garcia and the O's are in tough north of the border on Saturday. Take Toronto. GL, Jesse Schule

Pick
(916) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have had a disappointing season so far, after spending an awful lot of money in the off-season. While they still haven't come anywhere close to living up to expectations, things have turned around in recent weeks. The bats have started to come alive, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are once again among the leaders in home runs in the AL. The pitching staff is also starting to come around, and the most encouraging news Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey appears to be getting some of his swagger back. Dickey (4-5, 4.50 ERA) has won consecutive starts, and he's allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his last three outings. He went a season-high eight innings, surrendering only four hits in a win over the Rays in his last start. He certainly has been successful against Baltimore, with a record of 2-0, 0.56 ERA over his last two starts. The O's send Freddy Garcia to the mound, looking for his first victory of 2013. Garcia (0-2, 4.84 ERA) allowed three runs on a pair of home runs over six innings in a loss to the Yankees in his last start. He's given up six home runs in his four appearances, and that doesn't bode well considering that Toronto has two of the top home run hitters in the majors. Bautista is 5-for-11 lifetime, with a pair of homers versus Garcia, while Adam Lind is 4-for-8, also with a pair of home runs. Garcia and the O's are in tough north of the border on Saturday. Take Toronto. GL, Jesse Schule

Pick
(507) Indiana Pacers
Analysis
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Miami. The Pacers covered the spread the entire way in Game 1 vs. the Heat before losing by a single point. And, based on the long-term history of NBA series, Indy should get the money in Game 2 tonight (if not win outright). Indeed, teams...[systems and analysis deleted from this results page, as that valuable information goes only to clients who purchased this selection]... have been terrific on the road in the next game, as they've covered the spread over 63% of the time since 1991. Further, ...[systems and analysis deleted from this results page, as that valuable information goes only to clients who purchased this selection]... have covered just six of the last 28 games. We saw that occur just three days ago when the Spurs failed to cover against Memphis as a 5 point favorite, up 1 game to none. Even worse: if ...[systems and analysis deleted from this results page, as that valuable information goes only to clients who purchased this selection]... then ...[systems and analysis deleted from this results page, as that valuable information goes only to clients who purchased this selection]... have covered 0 of the last 14 times! Look for Indiana to get the $$$ tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Pick
(973) Oakland Athletics
Analysis
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. A pair of lefthanders take the hill tonight in Houston and the fact that both Tommy Milone and Erik Bedard are southpaws is about the only thing these two have in common. Bedard is a hard-throwing veteran who has a career strikeout rate of better than a batter per inning but whose had all sorts of arm problems throughout his career limiting his success. Milone - eight years Bedard's junior - has been mostly a finesse pitcher although he has improved on his strikeout rate in each of the three seasons he's been in the league and this year Milone's KK-to-BB rate of over four puts him in very high company. Milone is one of many young Oakland starters who could be on the verge of a breakout and the question with him - like all young A's pitchers - is how long will he stay in Oakland? But he's there for now and he gets his 10th start of the season tonight against the last-place Astros while Bedard is just hoping to catch on with his fourth team in the last three seasons and get back to the point where he's healthy enough to get between 25 and 30 starts. Unfortunately for Bedard looking to pick up his first win as an Astro (he's 0-2), he's picked a very tough opponent to do it against as the A's have won all six meetings this season, eight straight going back to 2007, and 11 of the last 12. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Pick
Under
Analysis
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total. Looking at lefthanded veteran Joe Saunders' numbers so far in 2013 - his first season in Seattle - you won't see anything to write home about. Overall in nine starts, Saunders is 3-4 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. But take a look at what Saunders has done in his new home ballpark, and you will see something completely different. In four outings at Safeco Field, Saunders is 3-0 with a 0.94 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, making Saunders the starter with the biggest home-field bias in the AL so far this season. By now everyone knows they've moved the fences in at Safeco, but if the intention was to make it a more hitter-friendly venue for a bulked up Seattle lineup, then the experiment isn't exactly working. Last season Safeco was the most pitcher-friendly Park in the Majors according to the Park Factor ratings and this season so far with the fences closer, Safeco is still the friendliest to pitchers in the AL and only 26th in the rankings in the Majors. For the Rangers, it will be replacement starter Justin Grimm getting his eighth start and Grimm has already had success against the M's this season, going 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts against them in April. The under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings of these two. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Pick
(964) San Francisco Giants
Analysis
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies. The Giants come off of a tough three-game home-stand against the Nats in which two of the three games went extra innings. Some believe that series was a preview of the NLCS and certainly the Rockies would love to have something to say about that, although realistically they seem to be a few notches below those teams and the Reds, Braves, and Cards. But that hasn't kept the Rocks from being one of the big surprises in the NL so far (akin to the Indians in the AL) as almost nobody would have predicted a 26-21 record for this team after 47 games and in fact that record is the same as the defending World Series Champs who happen to be hosting Colorado for three games this weekend. And therein lies the Rockies biggest problem - they don't travel well. Colorado seems to love the rarefied air of Coors Field, going 16-9 there, but so far away from Denver this team is just 10-12 on the season and a dismal 13-27 in their last 40. Righthander Tyler Chatwood is one of many pleasant surprises for the Rocks, going 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts so far since being called up from AAA Colorado Springs. But Chatwood has allowed 21 hits and seven walks in just 17 1/3 innings and that's a sign that he's been more lucky than good this season. Colorado is just 15-36 in the last 51 meetings. Take the Giants. As always, good luck..Al McMordie.

Pick
(52) Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Penguins (-1.5) The Penguins lost Game 3 in Ottawa, and that got some people thinking that this could be a competitive series. That sure doesn't look like the case now though, after a massacre in Game 4, that resulted in Craig Anderson getting the hook for the second time in this series. Now the Senators go back to Pittsburgh, knowing that the there is going to be a whole lot of golf in the very near future. When asked if he thinks his team can come back, Sens captain Daniel Alfredsson, said "proabably not." The Penguins have won four of their five home games during these playoffs, and three of those four wins were blowouts. This series should come to a close here on Friday in Pittsburgh, and I'm expecting it to be a blowout. Take the Pens. GL, Jesse Schule

Pick
(507) Indiana Pacers
Analysis
This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers The Heat probably should have lost game 1, but once again they escaped with a victory after getting outplayed in the first half. I had noted prior to Game 1: "In their series with Chicago, only once in five games did they take a significant lead (4+ points) to the locker room at halftime. The Heat are notorious for slow starts, taking over in the second half, and closing in the fourth quarter." The Pacers came in to this series insisting that they could beat Miami, and few actually gave them a chance. After Game 1, the Pacers absolutely believe they can beat this Heat team, and belief can be a powerful thing. "I don't think you can say you're the better team when that team has done what they've done," Vogel said. "But I believe we can beat them." After seeing the Pacers come so close in Game 1, you really have to wonder if this Heat team is really worth all the hype? If you remember clearly, they were on the ropes against the Celtics in last season's East Final, and a controversial finish in Game 4 might have been the difference in that series. There are many who think the Heat have been getting a break from the zebras in this season's playoffs as well. They certainly looked as though they needed some help in Game 1. The line for tonight's Game 2 is roughly the same as it was in Game 1, and I really can't see any reason why the result will be much different, especially in the first half. I'm expecting another close game. Take the Pacers GL, Jesse Schule

Pick
(972) Boston Red Sox
Analysis
Cleveland at Boston 7:10 ET Red Sox over Indians- The return to Boston by Cleveland manager Terry was a success as the Indiana pounded the Red Sox who have now dropped six of their last seven at home. Tonight the Indians will send their best in Justin Masterson (7-2, 2.83 ERA) to face his former team and he is 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA in six career starts against Boston. John Lackey (2-4, 3.31) the Sox starter is struck-out 16 batters while walking only two in his last three starts and will help Boston bounce back with a win here. Take BOSTON!

Pick
(508) Miami Heat
Analysis
Indiana at Miami 8:30 ET Heat – over Pacers- The concern for the Heat entering Game 1 of this series was how was Miami going to handle Indiana's inside presence led by 7'2” center Roy Hibbard. As it turned out the Heat didn't even have to be concerned when it counter most as the Pacers coaching didn't feel the need for Hibbard to be on the when it counter most and it may have just coast them the first game of this series. Rebounding off a loss like this will be difficult to over-come as the Heat will play better this time out. Take MIAMI!

Pick
(970) Tampa Bay Rays
Analysis
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay 7:10 ET Rays over Yankees- Things must real have changed for someone to able to say the 'surprising' first place New York Yankees lead the AL East, but it is surprising when you realize that they have had six starters on the disabled list at the same time. Sooner or later these injuries will take it's toll and in Tampa is where it should happen. Two huge trends spell the end of the Yankees run and one is that the Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a favorite but even bigger is that the Yankees are just 3-13 in their last 16 meetings in Tampa Bay. Tonight it's the RAYS!

Pick
Under
Analysis
Brandon McCarthy has performed like an ace for the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last two outings, pitching 17 scoreless innings. McCarthy, signed as a free agent in December, looks to produce another strong start tonight.Stults has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts, winning two of three decisions. The left-hander yielded one run and four hits over eight innings to beat Washington 2-1 on Saturday in his longest outing of the season. Stults is 3-2 in seven career appearances (five starts) against Arizona with a 4.36 ERA. The under is 4-0 in Stults' last 4 starts as an underdog and 4-1 in Stults' last 5 road starts. The under is 8-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 games as a favorite and 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall. Play:UNDER

Pick
(956) Cincinnati Reds
Analysis
The National League Central rivalry between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs has been rather one-sided over the past two seasons. Cincinnati has won 17 of 22 meetings since the start of the 2012 season, including five of six already this season. Arroyo has not allowed a run over his past two starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings in victories over Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Those dominant performances came on the heels of a three-start losing streak, so the Reds hope the right-hander has at least one more strong performance coming. Arroyo is 11-9 with a 2.99 ERA in 28 games (26 starts) against the Cubs. Joey Votto is 22-for-43 with three homers during an 11-game hitting streak and 2B Brandon Phillips has gone 13-for-42 while hitting safely in 10 straight. The Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 overall and 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.Play: Cincinnati

Pick
(959) San Diego Padres
Analysis
San Diego, which lost its last two to St. Louis, took two of three from Arizona earlier this month at home. Stults has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts, winning two of three decisions. The left-hander yielded one run and four hits over eight innings to beat Washington 2-1 on Saturday in his longest outing of the season. Stults is 3-2 in seven career appearances (five starts) against Arizona with a 4.36 ERA while the Diamondbacks are 0-4 in McCarthy's last 4 home starts. The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League West and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Arizona.

Pick
(508) Miami Heat
Analysis
Indiana was clearly the play in Game 1 as the Pacers were in a position to win the game the minute the ball was tipped. It is nothing new to watch Miami underachieve after a long layoff as the clearly have some issues staying sharp when having all this free time while waiting to play their next opponent in a new playoff series. What a familiar scenario, Heat struggle in Game 1 of a series and the underdog starts to get respect from bettors. But the Pacers have not only gotten respect from just the bettors and they also have gotten respect and more importantly the attention of the Miami Heat. It is truly amazing how this Heat team can 'flip the switch' when they need to and now that they are fully aware that the Pacers believe they can beat the boys in South Florida, Miami will look to punch them in the mouth early and try to turn this into a boring snooze fest. Pacers make run in the 2nd half, but the Heat answer and power their way to a 2-0 lead in the series.

Pick
Over
Analysis
Today's winner is the OVER in the Pacers/Heat game. This is my 100 Star Winner. Miami struggled in Game 1, shooting 47.7% from the floor (41of 86). The Heat was a dismal 64% from the line (16 of 25). Indiana shot about the same but outrebounded Miami, 43-38. Let's face it when these two teams are forced to shoot contested 3-pointers (both app. 28% beyond the arc), something's gotta give. The two squads combined for a whopping 41 TOs in the opener. That won't happen again. Together, these two teams have played to three straight OVERS. In the L7 meetings, six have gone OVER the Total. Both Indiana and Miami will go back to what got them here….That means less TOs, better shooting, and still another game that will be OVER the Total. The OVER is 12-2 in the Pacers L14 games following a SU loss and 6-1 in the Heats L7 Conference Final Games. Take the OVER. Thank you.

Pick
(961) St. Louis Cardinals
Analysis
Today's winner is St. Louis over Los Angeles. This is my Grand Slam Play. St. Louis owns the best overall record in the League at 30-16, including a 16-5 run their L21. They also boast the top road mark at 16-8 away from home. Their lineup has four batters each averaging .300 or better as well as 50 or more hits. The offense scores 4.74 RPG and has a Team BA of .269, while their pitching staff ranks in the Top-10 in every category, with a staff ERA of 3.18 which leads the MLB. Team Wins Leader, Lance Lynn gets the start. The RH is 6-1 on the season. Los Angeles is last in the West at 19-26. Scoring has been an issue for the Dodgers, ranking 28th, with a mere 3.47 RPG. Chris Capuano takes the bump. The LH is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.84 TY. Lifetime, Capuano is 5-6 with a 5.90 mark against St. Louis. The Cardinals are 10-2 their L12 games played on the road, 13-4 in Lynns L17 starts, and 5-2 their L7 games played vs. the Dodgers. Take St. Louis. Thank you.

Pick
(969) New York Yankees
Analysis
Play On: NY Yankees w/Phelps vs Hernandez (Game 969) Note: When the Yankees send David Phelps to the mound against Roberto Hernandez and the Rays in Tampa Friday evening, New York will do so knowing Phelps is 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA his last four team starts during May. On the flip side Hernandez, aka Fausto Carmona, is 0-4 with a 13.78 ERA in his last four starts against the Bronx Bombers. With Hernandez just 5-10 his last 15 team starts during May, including 3-7 at home, look for the Pinstripes to prevail tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on the NY Yankees. Thank you and good luck as always. Don't make a move on Saturday's NBA playoff game between the Grizzlies and Spurs until you scope out a killer Key Play supported with no less than three 100% ATS awesome angles inside the same game, including one that is 10-0 ATS in Game Three's throughout the playoffs since 1990. It's yours - if you act now!

Pick
(52) Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis
It could be all over in this Eastern semifinal after tonight as the Penguins look to end the series vs. the Senators. It began to go pear-shaped for Ottawa in Game Four as the defense collapsed in front of GK Craig Anderson and the Pens peppered him with seven goals to take full control of this series. Scoring goals has been no problem for Pittsburgh in this entire postseason, tallying a hefty 4.1 per game. True, the Penguins are 0-6 at home in potential series-clinching wins under coach Dan Bylsma, but that provides more motivation to end this series tonight, especially after Pittsburgh allowed Tampa Bay to get off the deck from a 3-1 deficit two years ago. The Pens tilted the ice on Wednesday, dumping the puck deep into Ottawa's end then using speed and aggressive forechecking to smother the Sens. Pittsburgh forward James Neal broke out of a mini-slump with two goals and an assist, while Jarome Iginla scored twice, Sidney Crosby added one more, and defenseman Kris Letang collected four assists. With all systems apparently functioning very smoothly at the moment for the Penguins, we suspect they can extend the margin and win this series in some style. Play Penguins on Puck Line

Pick
(507) Indiana Pacers
Analysis
Although Indiana is now going to have to effectively beat Miami five times to advance from this series after the incredibly-bitter last-second OT loss in Game One, we hardly believe the Pacers are out of this series by any means. As expected, matchups were problematic for the Heat on Wednesday, as Miami needed yeoman's work from Birdman Andersen (including 14 points on 7 for 7 FGs) to counter the size edge owned by Indiana's bigs in that 103-102 thrill win for the Heat. While Miami owns the great equalizer in LeBron James, the rest of the matchups might favor the Pacers, and Indiana's Paul George is in the process of confirming himself as a legit go-to threat after scorinh 25 of his 27 points after halftime in Game One. We might have been more reluctant to back the Pacers had they won Game One, but have no reservations backing Indiana once again in Game Two. Play Pacers

Pick
(957) Pittsburgh Pirates
Analysis
It's not like the old days when Milwaukee would beat Pittsburgh like a drum. Indeed, when these two got together last week at PNC Park, the Bucs won 3 of 4. And though the Brewers are 46-8 at home vs. the Pirates since 2007. throw those numbers out the window when analyzing this game. That's because these teams are headed in completely opposite directions at the moment, with the Bucs on an 11-2 tear their last 13 while the Brew Crew is 4-16 in a very tough month of May. it's gotten so bad for Milwaukee that rumors are circulating about manager Ron Roenicke's status on a daily basis. It doesn't help Roenicke that Milwaukee's pitchers have been mostly awful this month, and Marco Estrada is one of those with a 7.71 ERA in his last four starts. Throw out the May 13 win at Pittsburgh and his ERA is 10.93 in that recent stretch. Meanwhile, the Pirates staff has posted a 2.15 ERA during the recent uptick, and hard-luck starter A.J. Burnett is due to a reversal of fortune after posting a 2.57 ERA in his last three outings, but failing to get a win due to lack of run support. That should change tonight at Miller Park. Play Pirates

Pick
(971) Cleveland Indians
Analysis
We won with Cleveland last night and we will back the Indians once again on Friday. The Indians offense exploded again on Thursday and they have scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight games while averaging 8.0 rpg over that stretch and they look to keep that rolling. Justin Masterson has been outstanding this season despite a couple bad starts in late April and early May as he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his 10 overall games. He has not allowed a run in two straight starts and he returns to Fenway in hopes of making up for two straight losses against his former team after posting four straight wins. Overall he has a 3.72 ERA in six career starts against Boston. After winning five straight games on the road in the midst of their roadtrip, the Red Sox have lost three of their last four games. They have been extremely solid on the road with a 15-9 record but they have not been as good at home, going 13-11 and going back, the Red Sox are 5-15 in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record. John Lackey is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed just one hit and one unearned run in six innings against the Twins. Prior to that he had a rough outing against the Rays and it needs to be noted that his three best starts were against Minnesota (twice) and Houston so stepping up against another quality opponent will likely see another regression. 10* (971) Cleveland Indians

Pick
(973) Oakland Athletics
Analysis
Shoddy defense plays havoc on pitchers, another problem for the awful Astros. Veteran lefty Erik Bedard (0-2, 6.00 ERA) has walked 15 batters in 33 innings and allowed 37 hits. Houston is the worst team in the league and his offense doesn't help him, 20th in runs scored, 24th in on base percentage. The Astros are 18-43 in their last 61 home games and 27-55 following an off day. Oakland has been good both home and away and has had a great week. Starter Tommy Milone (3.47 ERA) is a decent lefty show has struck out 49 in 57 innings with only 12 walks allowed. Milone earned his fourth win by holding the Royals to one earned run in six innings on five hits and three walks while striking out four. The Athletics are 35-16 against the AL West and the Astros are 14-60 in their last 74 vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Oakland A's.

Pick
(969) New York Yankees
Analysis
Mound Mismatch Game of the Month: NY Yankees.
The first place NY Yankees have been impressive on offense, 10th in baseball in slugging, 14th in runs scored. They have a winning record both home and away. Starter David Phelps (3.83 ERA) has been great, striking out 46 in 42 innings and allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. Phelps has now allowed just two earned runs over his last two outings spanning 13 2/3 innings with 15 Ks and in his last three starts has a 1.83 ERA. New York has a winning record on the road, has been hot and the Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. The Yankees are also 19-9 following an off day. Up and down Tampa Bay goes with Roberto Hernandez, the former Fausto Carmona, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA. He is 1-5 in his career against New York with a 7.16 ERA. Play the NY Yankees.

Pick
Under
Analysis
High Roller Diamond Total: Padres/Diamondbacks Under the Total.
San Diego is at Arizona with a weak offense, 20th in baseball in runs scored, 18th in on base percentage and 25th in slugging. A pair of starters are on the mound who don't walk anyone. San Diego right Eric Stults (4-3, 4.05 ERA) has walked only 15 in 53 innings and is on a terrific run with a 2.29 ERA his last three starts. Stults improved to 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA in four May starts after Saturday's 2-1 win against the Nationals. Stults has allowed four runs over his last 19 2/3 innings. He has struck out 11 and walked nine while going 2-1 over that span. The Padres are 20-9-1 under the total on the road games against a right-handed starter. Arizona is in the middle of the pack in offensive stats and starter Brandon McCarthy has walked only 8 in 57 innings. He's in a groove, too, with a 1.16 ERA his last three starts and the Padres have never faced him. He has not allowed a run over his last two starts (17 innings). Arizona is on a 5-0 run under the total and the under is 7-2 in the Diamondbacks last 9 games following an off day. Play the Padres/Diamondbacks Under the Total.

Pick
(956) Cincinnati Reds
Analysis
At 7:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Cincinnati Reds (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) while listing both starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo and Scott Feldman. With the money line stabilizing at -150 in the late afternoon on Friday, I am comfortable in pulling the trigger with a strong play here. Cincinnati (29-18) enjoyed a day off yesterday -- and they have then won 4 of their last 5 games after a day of rest. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They send out Arroyo who is 4-4 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP so far this season. Over his last two starts, the right-hander has not allowed an earned run in 14 1/3 innings of work. Arroyo has been particularly tough at home so far this season with a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP as opposed to his 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP when on the road. The Reds have won 6 straight home games with Arroyo pitching against a team with a losing record. Additionally, with yesterday's off day Arroyo is pitching with five days of rest -- and Cincinnati has won 16 of their last 21 games when Arroyo was pitching with five days between starts.

Chicago (18-28) has lost 13 of their last 19 opening games of a new series. They counter with Scott Feldman who is 4-3 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been outstanding at home in Wrigley Field where he owns a 1.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .192 opponent's batting average -- but these numbers rise to a 3.22 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .241 opponent's batting average when on the road. Furthermore, the Cubs have lost a pathetic 41 of their last 57 road games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. Together, these team trends produce our specific 89-29 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money line on the Cincinnati Reds (956) versus the Chicago Cubs (955) while listing both starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo and Scott Feldman. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Pick
Under
Analysis
At 7:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the Ottawa Senators (51) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (52). Ottawa (30-21-0-6) finds themselves in a deep 3-1 hole now -- with two games pending on the road -- after their 7-3 loss to the Penguins on Wednesday. What head coach Paul MacKean should take away from that game is that the Senators cannot keep up with this potent Pittsburgh offense -- expect Ottawa to fully embrace a defensive contest that leans heavily on goalie Craig Anderson to outplay the Pens' Thomas Vokoun. Anderson enjoyed a .950 save percentage in the first round against the Canadiens before getting peppered in this series. The Senators have seen the Under go 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a loss at home by at least three goals. Additionally, Ottawa has played 4 straight games Under the Total against an opponent that scored at least five goals in their last contest.

Pittsburgh (43-14-0-1) has played 13 of their last 18 games on their home ice Under the Total. Together, these team trends produce our specific 30-8-1 combined angle for this situation. Two of the four games in this series have gone Under the Total. Don't be surprised if the Penguins are happy to slow things down with the Senators and rely on their skill players to make a play to pull out this game. Lastly, the Under is supported by a very strong and specific empirical angle that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. In games with the Total set at 5.5, when the home team comes off a victory by at least three goals and now faces a team that comes off a loss by at least three goals, these games then finished Under the Total in 79 of the last 115 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NHL Friday Night Special Feature with Under the Total in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the Ottawa Senators (51) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (52). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Pick
(966) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
I'm backing the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. Toronto was a popular pick to win the AL East and even the World Series before the 2013 season began. After a 10-21 start to the season the Jays were written off, but they finally seem to have found some team chemistry. They're playing .625 baseball over their last 16 games and Toronto is on a 6-1 run at home where they're tearing the cover off the ball. To go along with the red-hot hitting is tonight's starting pitcher, Sean Nolin. The Blue Jay southpaw is a prized pitching prospect and he has been tearing it up at Double-A New Hampshire. Nolin will face a Baltimore team that has lost seven of their last nine and averages just 1.8 rpg in road night action against lefties. The Orioles are just 1-7 on the road against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the Jays are on a 46-15 run against the O's, including a 4-0 run at home. I'm backing the Blue Jays on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick
(508) Miami Heat
Analysis
I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat on Friday night. Lost in the debate over the way Game 1 ended on Wednesday with Roy Hibbert on the bench is the fact that Indiana brought their "A-game," Miami played poorly, yet the Heat found a way to win the game. Miami committed a ridiculous amount of turnovers (21), couldn't make a trey (5-18, 28%), and were out-scord by 8 points at the FT line on 7 fewer attempts. I believe Indiana has little room to improve on what they did in Game 1, while Miami knows they have a high ceiling for improvement. Miami beat the Pacers by 14 points in their lone regular season meeting at home and I expect a victory margin in that neighborhood tonight. Miami's on a 13-5 ATS run and they're 6-1 ATS off a spread loss. I expect Miami to win and cover on Friday and I'm laying the points with the Heat. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick
(960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Analysis
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Padres took two of three meetings at Petco earlier. However, I look for the Diamondbacks to have the advantage this evening. While the Dbax are a modest 12-11 at home, the Padres are only 8-13 away from San Diego. Going back further finds Arizona at 107-82 here the past few seasons, including a 65-42 (+9.1) mark when playing here with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. While the Padres are a money-burning 24-53 (-20.6) the past few seasons, as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, the Dbax are 29-17 (+6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Admittedly, Stults has pitched well lately. However, McCarthy has been even better. In fact, over his last two starts - a span of 17 innings - he hasn't allowed a single run. Over his last three starts, he's got a stellar 1.16 ERA and 0.900 WHIP, averaging nearly eight innings per start. While Arizona is familiar with Stults, McCarthy will have the advantage of facing the Padres for the first time. I expect him to continue his recent strong pitching and the home team to start the series with a victory. 9* personal favorite

Pick
(508) Miami Heat
Analysis
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Pacers proved that they can play with the Heat in Game 1. That'll likely have many "grabbing the points" in Game 2. I believe the situation favors the Heat though. The Pacers know that they let one get away in the opener. That was their chance and they couldn't capitalize. Vogel and co. can claim otherwise but I believe that its going to be hard from them to bounce back here. On the other hand, the Heat know that they barely escaped Game 1. I believe the fact that they won such an emotional affair will provide them with positive momentum here. The Heat were dealing with a long layoff - longer than the Pacers - in Game 1. Now, they've received their "wake up call" and will be playing on "normal" rest. I expect them to be better. As Bosh noted Thursday: 'We're going to play a lot better. We've come to expect that of ourselves. We know that yesterday wasn't the championship effort that we need in order to win the series, let alone win the finals. We're going to have to do a much better job on defense and on offense to take care of the basketball, do a better job on the boards, do a better job of containing some of their actions." Miami backups Allen, Battier and Cole combined to go 2 for 16 last game. Their numbers should improve with the Heat cutting down on turnovers at the same time. Even with the cover in Game 1, the Pacers are still 15-20 ATS as underdogs, 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. In fact, they're an ugly 9-19 ATS their last 28 in that role. The Heat, on the other hand, remain a solid 10-6 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. One of those victories came in the regular season meeting against the Pacers here. Laying 6.5 points, the Heat won by 14. I expect another double-digit win. 10* Eastern Finals GOY

Pick
Under
Analysis
I'm playing on Ottawa and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. Last game got a little crazy at the end, the Pens erupting for seven goals, the teams combining for 10 goals. I'll be surprised if we even see half that many tonight. The series has alternated from high-to-low scoring games. The previous high-scoring game was followed by a 2-1 OT win by the Sens. Including that result, the UNDER is 5-2-2 when the Sens are off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. The UNDER is also 6-2-1 when the Sens were off a loss by more than a goal. Overall, the UNDER is still 32-16-5 in Ottawa games, including 9-4 when they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Ottawa's Jason Spezza said this about helping out Anderson tonight and committing to improved defense: ''To expect him to make save after save from point-blank range is unrealistic. We have to do a better job of keeping them to the outside and taking some of the heat off him that way.' While we know they can score, the Pens are also stingier than many give them credit for, allowing just 2.1 goals per game here at Pittsburgh. The UNDER is a respectable 44-35 (55.7%) in games here the past few seasons, when the O/U line was 5.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* blue chip

Pick
Over
Analysis
507 Indiana 57-37 at 508 Miami 75-17 Six of last 7 have gone over. Hard to believe total is this low on two teams that can score when asked too. Take Ind/Mia Over

Pick
(961) St. Louis Cardinals
Analysis
My 10* NL Game of the Month is on the StL Cards at 10:10 ET.

The Cardinals open a three-game series against the Dodgers in LA on Friday with the best record in MLB at 30-15 (Rangers are 30-16). The Cardinals haven't lost a series since April 26-28, when they dropped the final two of a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates and will visit Dodger Stadium the owners of a 16-8 road mark (best in MLB, as well as its best moneyline mark of plus-$811 on the road, as well), averaging 5.08 RPG. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are coming off a series win vs the Brewers, but enter 19-26 on the season (Dodgers rank 29th at minus-$1,370 vs the moneyline ), including an 11-13 home record, where the team has averaged a very modest 3.25 RPG. The St Louis 'bats' have been timely as of late, hitting .362 with runners in scoring position while winning 16 of 21. The Cards own MLB's lowest team ERA (3.18) and that's due to MLB's top starting rotation, at least up until this point in time. Lance Lynn is one of the reasons the Cardinals are off to such a hot start, pitching at least seven innings in five of his last eight outings, allowing three ERs less in SIX of those eight. He's 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in nine 2013 starts (team is 6-3). Lynn surprised most by going 18-7 with a 3.78 ERA in 35 appearances (29 starts) in 2012, as the team was 21-8 in his starts, or plus-$1015 vs the moneyline. He lost 40 pounds in the off-season in an effort to be in better shape this year and so far, so good. Lynn's also had the benefit of great run support, receiving a just barely under 7.0 runs per nine innings in 2013. The Dodgers counter with Chris Capuano, who began his major league career in 2003 and in 2005, went 18-12 for the Milwaukee Brewers. However, if people are familiar with Capuano at all, it's because of his long winless streak. Capuano started the Brewers' June 3, 2010 game against the Florida Marlins in Miami, giving up three runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings while striking out four and walking one. He was charged with the loss in the 3–2 Marlins win. On July 3, 2010, he finally appeared in a Brewers victory against the Cardinals in St Louis. This snapped a streak of 26 straight losses he had appeared in between 2007 and 2010 (some in starts. some in relief). Capuano signed with the New York Mets before the 2011 season and finished 11–12 with a 4.55 ERA. He signed a two-year deal worth $10 million dollars with the Los Angeles Dodgers on December 2, 2011 and began the 2012 season strong, going 9-4 record with a 2.91 ERA in his first 18 starts. However, he went only 3-8 with a 4.76 in his last 15 starts, finishing 12-12 with a 3.72 in 33 overall starts (tied with Clayton Kershaw for the 2012 team lead). Capuano began the 2013 season in the bullpen due to the Dodgers signing Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu in the offseason. However, he got a chance to start on April 16 due to an injury to Zack Greinke but suffered his own injury, a strained left calf, in the game and only lasted two innings, allowing five ERs in a 9-2 loss. He's returned from the DL to go 1-1 in three starts (team is 1-2), although he's allowed just one ER in each of his last two starts (1.32 ERA). However, the bad news is, Capuano's had 16 career starts vs the Dodgers (he's 5-6 and his teams 10-6), while posting an 'ugly' ERA of 5.83, tied for his highest against any NL opponent. He faced the Cardinals twice last season and lasted only 4.1 innings in both each outing, allowing 10 ERs on 18 hits for a 10.39 ERA, leaving Capuano 1-5 with a 6.58 ERA over his last 10 starts vs the Cards. Should we expect anything to change here? The answer is no, as Lynn and the Cards chalk up another win.

Good luck...Larry

Pick
(508) Miami Heat
Analysis
My 9* Game 2 Showdown is on the Mia Heat at 8:35 ET.

The Pacers proved they could play with the defending champs in Game 1 but missed a great opportunity to 'steal' a win at Miami in that contest. Losing a playoff game at the final buzzer on the road against the reigning NBA champs is NEVER a good thing and has the potential to demoralize a team. However, that's NOT the attitude expressed by Indiana head coach Frank Vogel. "Our belief," the Pacers head coach said Thursday, “has strengthened.” “Our belief in our ability to beat this team has strengthened after Game 1. Our familiarity in the playoffs, in the playoff series grows with each day, grows with each game, and there's a lot of things we can definitely do better." That sounds nice by here's why I am not 'buying it.' The Pacers got good games from George (27), West (26), Hibbert (19 & 9) plus Hansbrough chipped in 10 & 6 in 12 minutes off the bench. However, the starting backcourt of Hill and Stephenson combined to shoot 4-of-19 (21.0 percent) from the floor, including 0-of-7 on threes. Turnovers have been a problem with this team all year and it was an issue again in Game 1, with 20. Yes. Miami had turnover issues as well but unlike the Pacers, this was something atypical. LBJ was his typical unstoppable self in Game 1 (30-10-10) and what should change in Game 2? Some really good news for Miami fans was that Dwyane Wade played a postseason-high 41 minutes in Game 1 and scored 19 points on 9-of-15 shooting. Bosh had 17 points but only two rebounds, Chalmers was bothered by a bruised left shoulder and was ineffective plus the trio of Allen, Battier and Cole were a combined 2-of-16 (12.5 percent) from the floor, including 1-of-9 on threes. Meanwhile, “the Birdman” was Miami's second-best player, scoring 16 points (on 7-of-7 shooting) with five rebounds in 18 minutes. OK, so we can't expect Andersen to repeat that performance but he has become awfully consistent this postseason, averaging 7.9 PPG and 3.8 RPG in just over 14 minutes of action during Miami's 10 playoff games. Here's a tidbit for all, the Heat are 28-0 when Andersen grabs at least four rebounds. What's of greater importance is that the Heat have now won 46 their last 49 games. Expect a better game from Bosh, as well as Allen, Battier and Cole. I stayed away from playing either side in Game 1, afraid of Indiana's low-scoring road performances in the postseason to-date (Pacers surprised with 91 points in regulation) and hesitant to trust the Heat after a six-day layoff, based on the team's struggles following a seven-day layoff prior to facing the Bulls in Game 1 of the second round (Miami lost that one OUTRIGHT, as 12 1/2-point favorites). A quick recap of Miami's 2013 postseason reveals that the Heat are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS with “long rest” between games (Game 1 of the Chicago series and here in the East finals), while winning all EIGHT of their other games, all but ONE coming by double digits (close-out Game 5 win over Chicago, 93-90). Miami's seven other victories came by 23, 12, 13, 10, 37, 10 and 23. Doing the math, one finds that Miami is 8-0 SU on “normal” rest, winning by an average margin of 16.4 PPG! I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

Pick
(966) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
Here we go again with a first time southpaw, and while Sean Nolin is not considered a blue chip talent, it's tough to argue with what he's been doing on the farm. Nolin is undefeated since 2011, going 10-0 last season and 2-0 so far this year. He's a big dude, though not a real hard thrower. The Blue Jays apparently really like him, as the speculation for the last several days was that Nolin was going to get the call ahead of higher level and/or more experienced arms. Chris Tillman has been throwing well for the Orioles, But his stats at Rogers are mediocre and he's facing a Toronto lineup that has suddenly started to clobber the ball. The Baltimore bullpen has also turned into a massive sieve, so if this is close late, it looks as though the home team might have an edge. But this is mostly about playing on the debuting lefty Nolin, and I'm taking the Blue Jays at a very fair price.

Pick
(904) Detroit Tigers
Analysis
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Minnesota Twins, who have dropped their last 8 games. It may be too early to declare that Tigers righthander Rick Porcello has found the consistency that has eluded the starter for the better part of the past four seasons, but his recent results indicate that Porcello may finally be coming into his own as a Major League hurler. Porcello's 2013 numbers don't appear very good on the surface (2-2 with a 5.92 ERA), but in his last four starts, the 24-year-old is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and in his last start, Porcello beat the best team in the league, the Texas Rangers, throwing 5 2/3 innings while allowing just one run on five hits in a 2-1 victory in Arlington. The sinker ball has been working very well for Porcello and tonight's Twins lineup should pose much less of a threat than that of the Rangers last Friday. So far this season, Porcello is undefeated at home (1-0) and his ERA there is more than two runs better than it is on the road. Against the Twins in his career, Porcello is 6-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 91 innings. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Pick
(34) Los Angeles Kings
Analysis
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Minnesota Twins, who have dropped their last 8 games. It may be too early to declare that Tigers righthander Rick Porcello has found the consistency that has eluded the starter for the better part of the past four seasons, but his recent results indicate that Porcello may finally be coming into his own as a Major League hurler. Porcello's 2013 numbers don't appear very good on the surface (2-2 with a 5.92 ERA), but in his last four starts, the 24-year-old is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and in his last start, Porcello beat the best team in the league, the Texas Rangers, throwing 5 2/3 innings while allowing just one run on five hits in a 2-1 victory in Arlington. The sinker ball has been working very well for Porcello and tonight's Twins lineup should pose much less of a threat than that of the Rangers last Friday. So far this season, Porcello is undefeated at home (1-0) and his ERA there is more than two runs better than it is on the road. Against the Twins in his career, Porcello is 6-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 91 innings. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Pick
Under
Analysis
This is a 10* play on CHI@DET to go UNDER the total. The Blackhawks have run into a hot goaltender in Jimmy Howard, and they now find themselves with their backs against the wall in Detroit in Game 4. Howard put on a clinic in Game 3, stopping 39 of 40 shots in a 3-1 victory. Corey Crawford wasn't equal to the challenge, and he will have to be better in tonight's game. Crawford has had a fantastic season, and he's carried that right over into the playoffs. His GAA (1.81) and save percentage (.932) are far superior to those of Howard, so it wouldn't be any surprise to see a better performance between the pipes from Crawford tonight. These teams have a history of playing tight, low scoring games, and prior to losing the last two, Chicago had won eight straight versus Detroit. Only once in the last 10 meetings has the total gone over the number. Chicago certainly can win on the road, they were 19-4 away from home during the regular season. The Red Wings aren't exactly a dominant home team, with 15 wins at home and 14 on the road this year. Chicago has the depth in scoring the Detroit doesn't have, and Chicago is also stronger defensively, ranking first in the NHL in goals against. The Hawks haven't looked like the league's best defensive team in the last two games, but I expect that to change tonight. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule

Pick
(906) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
Baltimore at Toronto 7:07 Blue Jays over Orioles- Coming off yesterday's win with the Blue Jays has us ready for today's contest with the struggling Brandon Marrow (1-3, 5.16 ERA) starting for Toronto while Baltimore will counter with their top pick in the 2012 draft who will be making his first 'Big League' start. Marrow is 3-3 with a 4.05 ERA in 67 career innings against Baltimore. The Blue Jays are starting to put it together after a slow start. Take TORONTO!

Pick
(908) Boston Red Sox
Analysis
Cleveland at Boston 7:10 ET Red Sox over Indians- The storyline for this match-up will be the return of former Red Sox manager Terry Francona who will now be guiding the Cleveland Indians for the visitors dugout. These two have played one three game series in Cleveland where the Indians were swept by Boston by a combined 19-8 in runs scored. Ryan Dempster (2-4, 4.27 ERA) has struggled of late but is 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA lifetime against the Tribe. Take BOSTON!

Pick
(904) Detroit Tigers
Analysis
Is Minnesota skipper Ron Gardenhire in some trouble? If not, he could be soon if the Twins continue to stumble, their losing streak having mushroomed to eight after Wednesday's 8-3 loss in Atlanta. The staff has been the culprit in the recent skid that's seen the Twins get outscored 51-22, while the starting rotation has been tagged to the tune of an 8.41 ERA that stretch. Thursday starter Scott Diamond hasn't helped matters by allowing six runs in each of his last two starts. Much prefer Detroit, whose bats are hot after scoring 16 total runs in a 2-game sweep at Cleveland, while starter Rick Porcello has stabilized with a pair of solid efforts, allowing only 3 runs in 11 2/3 IP over his last two starts (2.31 ERA) with 12 Ks. Play Tigers on Run Line

Pick
(30) New York Rangers
Analysis
The Rangers are definitely on the ropes in this series vs. Boston and have not been able to count upon GK Henrik Lundqvist to overcome the shortcomings in attack and especially the power play, which continues to malfunction. But New York has only been outskated once in this series (Game two), and in desperation mode might figure to dig deep and deliver a big effort tonight at MSG. The Bruins could be excused for letting down a bit with a 3-0 lead, and remember that New York had won nine straight at the Garden before the Tuesday loss. Boston has been functioning smoothly with several rookies in its defensive lineup, but Rangers sniper Rick Nash has hinted at a breakthrough at times in this series. The Bruins have famously failed to close out series on a couple of occasions in recent years, and no surprise if New York extends this one to a Game Five in Beantown. Play Rangers

Pick
(901) Chicago Cubs
Analysis
The Cubs lost a tough one last night as they could get no run support for Jeff Samardzija who now has a 3.25 ERA through 10 starts but he has certainly been a tough luck pitcher with just 2.8 rpg of support behind him. Chicago has now lost three straight games, all of which have come by just one run and that has been the downfall all season as it is 6-12 in one run games this season. Edwin Jackson has not been the pitcher the Cubs had hoped for as he has a 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP through nine starts but he has been hurt by just a couple bad starts. He has allowed four runs or fewer in seven of those games while allowing three runs or fewer five times. He has had issues at Wrigley Field with a 7.81 ERA and 1.88 WHIP but he has been much more effective on the road, posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four starts. The Pirates remain hot as they have won 10 of their last 12 games to maintain their pace in the National League Central behind St. Louis and Cincinnati. Even with the win last night, the offense continues to struggle as Pittsburgh is hitting just .214 over its last 10 games including .207 against right-handed pitching. The Pirates send Jeanmar Gomez to the hill for his fifth start of the season and so far things have gone very good since his addition to the rotation. He is not throwing a lot of pitches as he has gotten worn out nearing 70 pitches but Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 in his four starts. That is not a streak that will last as the bullpen can only do so much. It is tough to back a guy that posted a 5.96 ERA in 17 starts with the Indians last season which eventually led to his release. 9* (901) Chicago Cubs

Pick
(903) Minnesota Twins
Analysis
After losing three of four against Texas to open its roadtrip, Detroit took both games against the Indians to start the week to move to within a half-game of Cleveland in the American League Central. The Tigers return home where they are 13-7 on the season but they have struggled there of late, going just 3-4 over their last seven games at Comerica Park. Rick Porcello gets the call tonight for Detroit and he has been pretty below average despite some recent success. He has a 5.92 ERA on the season and while most of the damage can be attributed to one bad start against the Angels, he has not been very sharp overall. Part of the problem is that he is not pitching in a regular rotation as he has been getting extra days off which tossing some spot starts as well. The Tigers are 2-12 in his last 14 games when throwing on five days of rest while going 3-8 in his last 11 starts as a favorite. Minnesota started the season very well but it is now in a big slump with losses in eight straight games. The Twins had won three straight road games before getting swept in Atlanta in their three-game series to open the week. Scott Diamond opened the season with a 3.03 ERA through his first five starts but he has allowed six runs in each of his last two outings. Both of those were at home where he is 0-4 with an 8.27 ERA but in three road starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA, all being quality outings. He has had great success here, posting a 2.42 ERA in four starts in Detroit and the Twins are 4-0 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. The Twins fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season, starting a pitcher who allowed six or more runs in his last two outings. This situation is 55-26 (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (903) Minnesota Twins

Pick
(33) San Jose Sharks
Analysis
Clearly the home team has not only has the edge in this series but it goes back to the regular season for both of these teams. Los Angeles and San Jose went a combined 36-6-6 on home ice during the regular season and it has not quit during the playoffs as the Kings are a perfect 5-0 at home while the Sharks are a perfect 4-0 at home. That includes the home team winning all four of their games during this series and while going a perfect 8-0 going back to the regular season. Blindly taking the home team again here will be the case for many but I am going against the grain and saying the road team finally breaks through. San Jose lost the first two games of this series here but it had a disadvantage in that is did not open Game One until a week after it had swept Vancouver in the first round so any momentum from that was lost. Now coming off two wins, the Sharks have had only one day off so that momentum can carry forward here. The Kings meanwhile defeated St. Louis in six games in the first round including wins in the final four games. The series clincher came at home and after three days off, they had the edge of remaining at home to take Game On e and eventually Game Two. Now having lost two straight games, the momentum has shifted. Because of the home domination on both sides, we are seeing some additional line value on the Sharks as the linesmakers had no choice but to adjust this number. Look for San Jose to steal a game and take control of this series. 9* (33) San Jose Sharks

Pick
Over
Analysis
Baltimore's strong offense heads to the Rogers Centre in Toronto, a great offensive park. Baltimore is 5th in baseball in runs scored, batting average and slugging. The Over is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. By sending Jair Jerrjens down this week they need a 5th starter, who will go here, stuck with Jake Arrieta, rookie lefty T.J. McFarland and rookie Kevin Gausman. Arrieta has a 6.63 ERA in four previous starts this year and is 1-2 7.31 in three starts at the Rogers Centre. Arrieta has been dealing with a tight shoulder while McFarland never started a major league game. They've used a major-league high 10 different starting pitchers already this year. Kevin Gausman gets the nod, fresh from Triple AAA, the Orioles' first-round draft pick last June, and has made just 13 professional starts. Toronto has righty Brandon Morrow going, and he's 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA walking 17 in 45 innings along with 49 hits allowed. The over is 12-5-1 in the Blue Jays last 18 vs. the AL East and 13-3 over the total on astroturf. Look for plenty of runs; Play the Orioles/Blue Jays over the total.

Pick
(907) Cleveland Indians
Analysis
MLB Diamond Dog of the Month: Indians.
Terry Francona returns to Fenway, this time managing the Indians. Boston is home, but new pitcher Ryan Dempster (2-4, 4.27 ERA) has looked lost with an 0-2 record and a 7.02 ERA his last three starts. Dempster threw 127 pitches Saturday against the Twins but couldn't finish the fifth inning, surrendering five earned runs on eight hits and six walks in 4 2/3 while striking out two. Boston is home from a road trip and had to play yesterday in Chicago. The Red Sox are 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland has been a big surprise, especially on offense ranked 4th in runs scored, 5th in on base percentage and tops in slugging. That offense will like Fenway, a great hitter's park. Zach McAllister (2.65 ERA) is on the hill having a great season, walking only 14 in 51 innings and he has a 1.71 ERA his last three starts. Cleveland is on a 21-8 run and the Indians are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Indians.

Pick
(31) Chicago Blackhawks
Analysis
NHL Playoff Game of the Year: Chicago Blackhawks in Game 4.
A great spot for the talented Chicago Blackhawks. This is not a young team that will panic, as the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup in 2010 and have the No. 1 seed after a dominating regular season. Detroit has worked hard to squeeze out a surprising 2-1 series edge, but the Red Wings can't quite match Chicago's skill, depth and talent. Chicago is second in the NHL in goals scored, tops in goals allowed, and had a sizzling 18-4-2 road record this season! Detroit was 0-for-5 on the power play in Game 3 and was outshot 40-30. They are 0-12 in the series on the power play despite being up 2-1. Look for a monster effort from the super-talented Blackhawks and the series to be even heading back to Chicago. Play the Chicago Blackhawks in Game 4.

Pick
(34) Los Angeles Kings
Analysis
At 10:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money line on the Los Angeles Kings (34) versus the San Jose Sharks (33) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. Los Angeles (33-18-3-4) is being challenged in these playoffs this season after racing out to 3-0 leads in all four of their playoff matchups en route to their Stanley Cup last season. The Kings return home after losing two straight games in San Jose -- but they can take some solace in the fact that they have outscored the Sharks by an 8-7 margin in what looked to be a very competitive series. Los Angles should be very confident at home where they have won twelve straight contests including the first two in this series. Head coach Darryl Sutter reshuffled his lineups in practice yesterday to shake things up on offense after their 2-1 loss in Game Four on Tuesday. We like the way the Kings closed that game out in the third period by outshooting the Sharks in the 3rd period by a 14-2 margin. Los Angeles also suffered a very unfortunate quick whistle in a scrum by the net where the refs declared that San Jose goalie Antti Niemi had possession of the puck mere moments before the Kings scored what looked like a legitimate goal that was then taken off the board. As it is, LA has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Additionally, the Kings have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. And back at home in the Staples Center, Los Angeles has won a decisive 39 of their last 51 games.

San Jose (31-18-3-4) has been tough at home -- but they have lost 12 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. Additionally, the Sharks have lost 4 straight games in Los Angeles. San Jose certainly played well in their two home games in this series. But we still take note of the fact that they converted a mere 5.5% of their shots on the road during the regular season. Furthermore, the Sharks have lost 13 of their last 19 games against a team that allowed two goals or less in their last game. Lastly, in the last 16 games between these two teams, the home team has won 13 of these contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 90-26 combined angle for this situation. We have been monitoring this money line closely with the number in the -145 to -155 price range. At 12:00 PM EST, we are seeing some -155s on the Las Vegas strip while most offshore casinos are at our -150 or less target for money line games. Making a judgment call, we are officially releasing this game -- with the hope that those in Las Vegas can shop to find a -150 (or better). In theory, money line plays priced higher than -150 become cost prohibitive in the long run. In the practice of the short run, occasionally laying a -155 is not going to bust a bank roll -- especially if we win the game still. After losing two straight on the road, LA's home dominance makes this a super play that needs to be invested in. 25* NHL Second Round Playoff Game of the Year with the money line on the Los Angeles Kings (34) versus the San Jose Sharks (33) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. Best of luck for us -- Frank (and we will have second side play for Thursday that also is worthy of my 25* seal of approval in what I consider a great NHL card tonight. Thanks, Frank).

BONUS "BIG-BANG" PARLAY RECOMMENDATION: Pass. I lean towards the Over and gave that out as a Free Play -- but the subsequent Parlay Price is too high is to make it a value play. Jonathan Quick could pitch a shutout here and I don't want to risk nearly 50% of the Kings side bet on a losing Parlay. Lets just win with LA. Thanks, Frank.

Pick
(30) New York Rangers
Analysis
At 7:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money line on the New York Rangers (30) versus the Boston Bruins (29) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. New York (30-21-3-4) finds themselves on the brink of elimination after losing Game Three of this series by a 2-1 margin. This is a tough Bruins team they are facing -- but this Rangers team may be more balanced than the one that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. New York made some nice moves at the trade deadline that re-established the depth they lost after trading for Rick Nash. Yet they find themselves down 3-0 in this series -- but remember that they lost Game One in overtime and entered the third period down only 3-2 before Boston pulled away. This is a closer series than that 3-0 deficit suggests -- and the Rangers outshot the Bruins on their home ice by a 34-24 margin on Tuesday. This is a confident group that rallied from a 3-2 deficit last round against the Capitals behind the stellar goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist who allowed only eight goals in the last five games of that series. And behind head coach John Tortorella, this playoff experienced group remains gritty and confident. On their home ice, they have still won 9 of their last 10 games. Additionally, they have won 19 of their last 26 against an opponent that scored two goals or less in their last game.

Boston (35-17-3-3) is certainly familiar with letting up after securing big leads in a playoff series. They let a suspect Toronto team force a Game Seven (and then a 4-1 lead midway through the 3rd period) before rallying back. And in 2010, this group actually blew a 3-0 lead against the Flyers. With two games remaining on their home ice, this Bruins team may let up a little in this spot. They entered the playoffs coming off a very busy stretch -- and they have now played a whopping 27 games since April 13th so fatigue is a very real possibility. As it is, Boston has lost 12 of their last 16 games in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 42-12 combined angle for this situation. 25* NHL Thursday Night Special Feature with the money line on the New York Rangers (30) versus the Boston Bruins (29) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

BONUS "BIG-BANG" PARLAY RECOMMENDATION: I'm taking the Rangers along with the Over in a small parlay where the payout would be equivalent to the value of a 20* bet. Money management is important here. A two-team parlay of New York and the Over returns a hypothetical $100 from around a $32 investment. I am willing to risk losing $32 or so from a 25* investment in relation to the Rangers side -- but I don't want to gut my NY play too much if Lundqvist has a great game. And I don't want to add too much to any potential losses if the Bruins close this series out tonight. But I like the Rangers enough to add another 1/3 of an investment on them with the Over at 5 and be satisfied with a Push at a 3-2 score. Because NY is desperate, I lean towards the Over as they need to play aggressive to change the tenor of this series. Best of luck -- Frank.

Pick
(908) Boston Red Sox
Analysis
AAt 7:10 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money line on the Boston Red Sox (908) versus the Cleveland Indians (907) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Dempster and Zack McAllister. Boston (27-19) has won 11 of their last 15 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also won 5 of their last 6 home games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They send out Dempster who is 2-4 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP so far this season. The right-hander looks to rebound from a disappointing outing at Minnesota where he allowed five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Look for Dempster to rebound from that performance as starting pitchers typically do as they look to redeem themselves from a subpar effort where they did not complete five official innings of work. Dempster has been much better at home this year where he enjoys a 3.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .197 opponent's batting average as compared to his 5.17 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and .279 opponent's batting average when on the road. What is encouraging about Dempster moving forward is that he has racked up 63 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings of work.

Cleveland (26-18) counters with Zack McAllister who is 3-3 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP so far this season. But while the right-hander sports a 2.16 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .218 opponent's batting average when at home, these numbers climb to a 3.57 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .268 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Indians have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with McAllister pitching as the underdog. Additionally, Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 5 opening games of a new series with McAllister on the mound. Moreso, McAllister is enjoying this success while being pretty fortunate with "seeing-eye" ground balls. His opponent's Batting Average for the ground Balls he is Allowing Into Play (GB BABIP*) of .200 is a bit lower than the Indians' defensive GB BABIP of .219. These are not good signs when now facing this Red Sox team that has won 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 31-10 combined angle for this situation. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money line on the Boston Red Sox (908) versus the Cleveland Indians (907) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Dempster and Zack McAllister. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

* GB BABIP: (Opponent) Batting Average for (ground) Balls put Into Play -- The assumption behind the application of this sabermetric is that while pitchers control their strikeouts, walks and HRs allowed, it is defense and luck (and, we argue that it is the skill of the batter when it comes to producing their line-drives) that control what happens to the balls that hitters put into play. We look specifically at ground-ball BABIPs because defense and luck play the predominant role in which balls get through the infield. By comparing a pitcher's specific GB BABIP to his team's overall GB BABIP, we seek to neutralize the quality of the defense to identify (luck) discrepancies that deviate from the expected norm. This luck dynamic helps us to predict future pitching performances. Over the long run, pitchers with low GB BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high GB BABIPs should see this number lower.

Pick
Under
Analysis
At 7:08 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (903) and the Detroit Tigers (904) while listing both starting pitchers Scott Diamond and Rick Porcello. Detroit (25-19) has played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Porcello to close out this series who is 2-2 with a 5.92 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP so far this season. After a slow start, Porcello has begun to live up to the promise he showed in spring training where he sported a 3.00 ERA and a 24:10 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings of work. The right-hander has been better at home where he enjoys a 1.21 WHIP and .258 opponent's batting average as compared to his 1.40 WHIP and .298 opponent's batting average when on the road. Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when Porcello was pitching as a favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. Porcello should enjoy a good game against this Twins team that has seen the Under go 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Minnesota (18-25) has lost eight in a row after their 8-3 loss in Atlanta yesterday -- and the Under is 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game.. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games as an underdog. They counter with Scott Diamond who is 3-4 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP so far this season. Diamond looks to rebound from a rough outing where he allowed six runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work against the Red Sox. Expect the left-hander to bounce-back with a much better performance as he looks to redeem himself and maintain his spot in the rotation after that performance. Diamond has been very good on the road with a 1.42 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and .175 opponent's batting average -- but he sees these numbers rise to a 8.27 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and .411 opponent's batting average when at home. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Twins' last 4 road games with Diamond on the mound. Furthermore, the deeper sabermetrics suggest that Diamond is making it difficult on opposing hitters. His opponent's Batting Average for the line drives he is Allowing Into Play (LD BABIP*) of .720 which is much lower than Minnesota's defensive LD BABIP of .760. Additionally, the Under is 6-1-1 in the Twins' last 8 games when Diamond pitching as an underdog. He has a nice opportunity to pitch a good game against this Tigers' team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP over 1.30. Lastly, in the last 7 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total in 6 of these contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 66-16-5 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (903) and the Detroit Tigers (904) while listing both starting pitchers Scott Diamond and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

* LD BABIP: (Opponent) Batting Average for (line drive) Balls put Into Play -- We look to this metric since line drives are typically the result of the batter "winning" the battle between hitter and pitcher and getting their desired contact with the baseball. Batters can more likely "place" these line drives into open spaces for base hits. This is the opposite argument that we make with ground balls (GB BABIP). We make this distinction because (a) batters are not hoping to make ground ball contact so they are not "placing" these batted balls, and (b) getting ground balls through the infield are more dependent on the infield's defensive positioning. We compare a pitcher's opponent LD BABIP to his team's defensive LD BABIP to neutralize the varying qualities of team-to-team defense.

Pick
(905) Baltimore Orioles
Analysis
I'm backing the underdog Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night. Baltimore sends young prospect Kevin Gausman to the mound on Thursday. The right-hander pitched well in the lower-minors last season and this year he's off to a strong start at Double-A Bowie. Gausman owns a 3.11 ERA in eight starts this season with 49 strikeouts and just 5 walks in 46 1/3 IP. Gausman gets "just what the doctor ordered" against a struggling Toronto team that plates just 3.6 rpg in home night games against righties. Gausman should also receive a lot of help from his teammates, who'll step in the box against Brandon Morrow. The Toronto righty has struggled this season and won't likely receive a lot of run support. The Orioles are on a 4-1 road run against right-handers and they're on a 21-10 run against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Jays have won just 13 of their last 41 games inside the AL East. I'm backing the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick
Over
Analysis
Blanton has been a disaster with an ugly 0-7 mark and a lofty ERA. Santa was hammered by the Yankees in his last start. The over is certainly the way to go on Friday night in Kansas City.

Pick
(906) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays got a big win yesterday and I expect them to carry the momentum into today's contest. Bautista was 4 for 4 with two home runs and all four RBI's. One of his home runs was a walk-off shot in extra innings. That was the Jays' first walk off home run this season and I believe it will prove to be just what the doctor ordered, for this talented but under-achieving team. Morrow was very sharp in his last start here at Toronto. He allowed two runs, on only three hits, through eight complete innings, winning by a score of 10-2. The Jays also won his previous start here, although Morrow who allowed three runs, didn't factor in the decision. In 24 1/3 innings here, he's got 27 K's. The Jays are 2-0 his last two starts against Baltimore. While he took the loss at Yankee Stadium in his last start, Gibbons said this of him: "I thought Morrow threw the ball really well, he really did." Gausman is one of the Oriole's top prospects and brings an impressive K/W ratio to the table, from the minors. However, this is his major league debut and he'll be facing a Toronto team which has quietly won five of six at home. All things considered, I feel this price is very fair. 10* personal favorite

Pick
(31) Chicago Blackhawks
Analysis
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Home ice is worth a lot at the betting window. However, in the NHL playoffs, its not always quite as important as is reflected by the price. In many cases, like last night in Ottawa - and tonight at Detroit - we're able to get able to get a superior team at a reasonable price, just because that team is on the road. In this case, we've got arguably the most complete team in the league, in a near "must win" spot - and we're getting them priced as a fairly modest favorite. I feel that's providing us with very fair value. The Hawks are still 12-5 (+5.1) the last 17 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 7-1 (+5.6) the last eight times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 9* personal favorite

Pick
Under
Analysis
I'm playing on NY and Boston to finish UNDER the total. I had the "under" in the last game and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this evening. Yes, we do have to lay some extra juice to play at five. However, five is a whole lot better than 4.5, which this could easily be. As I believe this has a much greater chance of finishing with less than five goals than with more, I feel that extra juice is worth it. The Rangers have seen the UNDER go 8-1-1 the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, the UNDER going 32-15-6 when they were in that situation the last few seasons. During the same stretch, the UNDER is also 7-3-1 when the Rangers were off three consecutive losses. I'm not certain whether or not the Rangers can avoid the sweep - but I do look for them to be "stingy" once again. 8*

Pick
(31) Chicago Blackhawks
Analysis
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Home ice is worth a lot at the betting window. However, in the NHL playoffs, its not always quite as important as is reflected by the price. In many cases, like last night in Ottawa - and tonight at Detroit - we're able to get able to get a superior team at a reasonable price, just because that team is on the road. In this case, we've got arguably the most complete team in the league, in a near "must win" spot - and we're getting them priced as a fairly modest favorite. I feel that's providing us with very fair value. The Hawks are still 12-5 (+5.1) the last 17 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 7-1 (+5.6) the last eight times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 9* personal favorite

Pick
(910) Kansas City Royals
Analysis
909 LA Angels at 910 Kansas City Blanton vs Sanatana LA Angels send Blanton to the hill vs Santanta ex angel. The halos have struggled all year. Take 910 Kansas City

Pick
(910) Kansas City Royals
Analysis
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Royals at 8:10 ET.

Are the Angels finally starting to come around? LA started slowly last year and in the end, that cost the team by season's end. It's been déjà vu again in 2013 for the Angels but suddenly, one of MLB's biggest disappointments this season has shown signs of turning things around with FOUR straight wins. The Angels have batted .348 with five HRs and have outscored opponents 37-12 during their current streak and tonight go up against a very familiar face. Ervin Santana spent his first eight years with the Angels (2005-12) winning 96 games to rank second to Jered Weaver's 102 over that span. He was 16-8 in 2006, 16-7 in 2008 and 17-10 in 2010, when he made an All Star trip. However, he fell to 11-12 in 2011 and after a 9-13 (5.16 ERA) season in 2012 (allowed a whopping 39 HRs in 178 innings!), he was dealt to the Royals on Oct 31, 2012. Santana lost his debut with the Royals (6 IP / 5 hits / 4 ERs) back on April 3 but then went 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA over his next four starts (KC won all four). Santana had a chance for another win on May 2 but that game was stopped three outs shy of a complete game, with the Royals leading 1-0. He took a no decision in his next outing (a 4-3 loss), allowing seven hits and three ERs over six innings, then allowed four ERs on eight hits in 6.1 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Yanks. Santana pitched very well in his most recent start (at Oakland last Saturday), but was on the losing side of a 2-1 decision, allowing just four hits and two ERs over seven innings. Yes, he's lost his last two starts to fall to 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA on the season (team is 4-4 in his eight starts), but he's been backed by just two total runs in those contests. Santana faces his long-time teammates tonight for the first time and I expect him to be up for the challenge, PLUS, it very likely he'll finally get some run support with the Angels turning to Joe Blanton. Blanton's been around since 2004 and made a 'splash' with the Phillies in 2008, when he joined them during the season in a trade from Oakland) and went 4-0 in 13 starts (team was 9-4). He then went 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three postseason starts 9Phils were 3-0), helping Philly to a World Series title. However, Blanton's been no better than mediocre since in pitching for Philly and the Dodgers. He signed with the Angels in December of 2012 (two years for $15 million!) and has been downright AWFUL! He opened the season 0-7 in his first eight starts (team was 0-8) and then allowed 11 hits but just four runs (over 4.1 innings) of his last outing, with the Angels finally getting a win with him on the mound, 12-9 (however, Blanton hardly deserves any credit for the win). He enters this game having allowed 86 hits in his 50.1 innings while posting a 6.62 ERA in 2013. He's 0-7 in nine starts with the Angels going 1-8 and minus-$870 vs the moneyline (3rd-worst among all MLB starters in 2013). The Angels enter on a four-game win streak while the Royals are in a tailspin, losing five of their last six, but I expect current form to take a detour here. Look for Santana to keep his ex-teammates in check while Blanton's 'nightmare' season continues.

Good luck...Larry

Pick
(909) Los Angeles Angels
Analysis
Not going to even try to make a case for Joe Blanton, who has been horrendous. But the Halos are suddenly a hot baseball team. Four wins in a row, and the offense has awakened in a big way. The Royals are in a steep decline right now. Maybe Blanton gets their bats back to life, but this team is a pure fade currently and I want to get on the Angels here, especially with the nice price.

Pick
(27) Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Ottawa Senators. The Pens were within 30 seconds of taking the third straight game over the Senators and having what everyone would call an insurmountable 3-0 lead in this series when Ottawa's Captain Daniel Alfredsson tied the game - shorthanded no less - to send the game into overtime where teammate Colin Greening would win it in dramatic fashion. The big question for the Pens is how their new #1 goalie, Tomas Vokoun - who laid face-down on the ice for several seconds after the winning goal - will respond to what has to be the biggest disappointment of his career. Still, Vokoun has been great so far for Pittsburgh, after taking over for former starter Marc-Andre Fleury who completely fell apart in the Islanders series. And Pittsburgh is still the best team in the league, and there is a considerable talent advantage that the Pens hold over their opponents with guys like Crosby, Malkin, Kennedy, and Neal. Given that Pittsburgh is 10-1 on the road this year when revenging an upset loss, the cream will likely rise to the top tonight north of the border, sending the Pens back to Pittsburgh with a chance to clinch and advance to the Conference Finals. Take the Penguins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Pick
(956) Colorado Rockies
Analysis
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. D-Backs righthander Trevor Cahill is one of the hot NL starters so far this month, but before we get too excited about Cahill's 2-1 record and 1.80 ERA to begin May, we should take a closer look at his numbers and his starts. First, although the ERA is low, Cahill -- after logging 32 strikeouts and 13 walks in six April starts -- has just 11 strikeouts and the same number of walks in his 20 innings comprising his three trips to the hill so far this month. Second, Cahill's three May starts have been against the Dodgers, Phillies, and Marlins -- three clubs who have been struggling to find offense in recent weeks -- something which hasn't been the case with the Rocks who have been on a bit of a scoring tear lately plating a total of 44 runs in their last seven games. Lefthander Jorge De La Rosa gets his 10th start this afternoon, and De La Rosa has been on a tear of his own, winning all three of his May starts while logging a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. De La Rosa started against Arizona at home back on April 20 and he threw six innings of 2-hit shutout ball as the Rockies won 4-3. In fact, the Rockies are 7-3 in De La Rosa's last 10 starts vs. the D-Backs. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Pick
Under
Analysis
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres 'under' the total. The Cardinals must have a factory somewhere that turns out nothing but young, dominant, robot starters that look an awful lot like human beings. Last year, it was Lance Lynn who virtually came out of nowhere to become a dominant force winning 18 games and making the All-Star team. We also got just a glimpse last summer of Shelby Miller, but now we're getting a full dose and Miller looks like a star and potential Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Candidate so far. They recently called up young righthander John Gast and Gast has won his first two starts. Now the factory has apparently produced another one as tonight we will see the MLB debut of lefthander Tyler Lyons who is taking Jaime Garcia's place, and though Lyons' AAA numbers don't jump off the page at you, all we need to know is that he's in the Cardinals system and it certainly doesn't hurt that he's a lefty facing the Padres hitters as San Diego is batting just .229 vs. southpaws so far this year. Heading into Wednesday, the under is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings and 8-4 in the last 12 at Petco Park. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...AL McMordie.

Pick
(504) Miami Heat
Analysis
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana. ...[systems and analysis deleted from this results page, as that valuable information goes only to clients who purchased this selection]... have covered 72% of the time over the past 20 years in the Playoffs. Further,...[systems and analysis deleted from this results page, as that valuable information goes only to clients who purchased this selection]... I foresee a similar result tonight. Lay it. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Pick
(968) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
Tampa Bay at Toronto 4:37 ET Blue Jays over Rays- There should be plenty of 'action' tonight as both of these starters are among baseball's leaders in runs allowed as Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson (2-2 5.82 ERA) faces Toronto's Mark Buehrle (1-3, 6.33). Hellickson is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA in five road starts while Buehrle is 8-3 lifetime against the Rays. At home with their power packed lineup Toronto is the side. Take the BLUE JAYS!

Pick
(968) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis
Tampa Bay at Toronto 4:37 ET Blue Jays over Rays- There should be plenty of 'action' tonight as both of these starters are among baseball's leaders in runs allowed as Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson (2-2 5.82 ERA) faces Toronto's Mark Buehrle (1-3, 6.33). Hellickson is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA in five road starts while Buehrle is 8-3 lifetime against the Rays. At home with their power packed lineup Toronto is the side. Take the BLUE JAYS!

Pick
(964) San Diego Padres
Analysis
St. Louis at San Diego 10:10 ET Padres over Cardinals- The Cardinals have the best record in baseball at 29-16 and are an impressive 15-8 away from home. St. Louis also has the best run differential in the MLB at a plus 57. Tonight's hurlers have yet to record a decision as the Cardinals send Tyler Lyons against the Padres Burch Smith. Both of these starters pitched college baseball in Oklahoma with Lyons throwing for the Cowboys and Smith for the Sooners. At home the Padres pull off a mild upset. Take SAN DIEGO!

Pick
(504) Miami Heat
Analysis
Indiana at Miami 8:30 ET Heat - over Pacers- I see this game much like Game One of the Western Finals between San Antonio and Memphis where for the most part the feeling is that underdog is ready to take on the favorites. I had the Spurs in Game One an easy 22 point winner and I see more of the same here with the well rested Miami Heat taking control of this series early. Indiana was able to do things against the Knicks that they will not be able to do against Miami for the most part because of a man named LeBron James. Last year James really came into his own and he shows every night that he is e most dominate player on the court be it on offense or defense. We are all aware of just how intimating 7' 2" Roy Hibbard can be as his presence is undeniable around that basket especially on defense but to is where Miami can turn the Pacers around with the great outside shooting of their center Chris Bosh who is deadly from 15 to 18 feet and even often beyond. Dwayne Wade has had eight days to rest his sore knee and at home will be another huge asset to the Heat. This in not the New York Knicks Pacers as facing it is not just another team, it is the reining and future NBA World Champions. Take Miami to win Game 1, it's the Heat!

Pick
(978) Chicago White Sox
Analysis
Boston at Chicago White Sox 8:10 ET White Sox over Red Sox- These two pairs of dirty Sox go at it heading in different directions as the White Sox will start lefty Hector Santiago (1-2, 2.78 ERA) in place of Chris Sale and Boston will counter with 'spit-baller' Clay Buchholz (6-0, 1.78) who is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA in five starts against Chicago. Buchholtz has not had a decision in his last three starts as the Red Sox bats have gone silent. The Whire Sox starters have posted a 2.84 ERA over their last 31 games that that should be enough to put down the Red Sox tonight. Take the WHITE SOX!.

Pick
(504) Miami Heat
Analysis
Since the beginning of the season and the playoffs, it's been assumed the Heat would walk through to their second straight NBA title. So far, they have, except for the lone hiccup in Game 1 against the Bulls. The Bulls get credit for a blueprint to not stop, but bother the Heat. Play them physical because it'll bother them. That worked for a while, but Miami punched back and won by an average of 18.25 in their four victories. Indiana will play them physically as well. Yes, the Pacers present different match-up problems for Miami. The Heat like to play small, especially late in games. James or Battier will have to defend someone bigger and stronger. But they can handle it. The Heat don't get irritated by much. James probably made a mountain out of Vogel's comments, but who cares. The Heat looked flat after a long layoff against the Bulls, then responded. That could happen in Game 1 Wednesday, but Miami is too good to let it linger. Lay the wood. Play: Miami

Pick
(503) Indiana Pacers
Analysis
Play On: Indiana Pacers (Game 505) Note; When the Pacers take on the Heat at American Airline Arena in the opener of the Eastern Conference finals in Miami Tuesday evening, Indiana will do so knowing that No. 1 seed in Game One of the Third Round of the playoffs are 0-11 ATS since 1997 when favored by 4 or more points and facing a foe off a win of 7 or more points in its last game. With the Pacers 12-6 ATS as road dogs in Game of a playoff series, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Indiana. Thank you and good luck as always.

Pick
(952) New York Mets
Analysis
Play On: NY Mets w/Harvey vs. Latos (Game 952) Note: When Matt Harvey opposes Mat Latos in the wrap up of this tree-game series at Citi Field Wednesday afternoon, Harvey will take the mound in terrific KW form with 22 strikeouts and 2 walks his last three starts. He is also 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA in his last five-team starts at home. With Latos in wobbly current form look for Harvey to improve to 2-0 in his career team starts in this series here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on the New York Mets. Thank you and good luck as always. Don't make a move on Wednesday's NBA playoff game between the Heat and Pacers until you check out an Awesome Angle inside the game that has bagged the cash 100% of the time in opening games of a series since 1997. Marc has it and you can too - if you act now!

Pick
(503) Indiana Pacers
Analysis
While we expect Miami to eventually advance from this series, we suspect it might not be a cakewalk vs. the Pacers, who pushed the Heat to six games last spring. Keep in mind that LeBron & Co. has not had to beat much in the first two rounds this postseason (subpar Milwaukee and injury-ravaged Chicago), and Indiana presents a more formidable challenge, especially with its big frontline led by Roy Hibbert and David West causing matchup problems for the smaller Heat in the paint. Indeed, Miami is going to need a lot of good minutes in the playoffs from Birdman, who figures to be an important component in this series. The Heat has also shown some vulnerability vs. the spread at home in the playoffs, dropping 3 of 5 vs. the spread as host. and lost two of three vs. the Pacers in the regular season. Play Pacers

Pick
(503) Indiana Pacers
Analysis
While we expect Miami to eventually advance from this series, we suspect it might not be a cakewalk vs. the Pacers, who pushed the Heat to six games last spring. Keep in mind that LeBron & Co. has not had to beat much in the first two rounds this postseason (subpar Milwaukee and injury-ravaged Chicago), and Indiana presents a more formidable challenge, especially with its big frontline led by Roy Hibbert and David West causing matchup problems for the smaller Heat in the paint. Indeed, Miami is going to need a lot of good minutes in the playoffs from Birdman, who figures to be an important component in this series. The Heat has also shown some vulnerability vs. the spread at home in the playoffs, dropping 3 of 5 vs. the spread as host. and lost two of three vs. the Pacers in the regular season. Play Pacers

Pick
(28) Ottawa Senators
Analysis
Pittsburgh has not had it easy in the playoffs, pushed to six games in the opening round vs. the longshot Islanders, who made the Penguins work into OT at Nassau Coliseum before finally securing a Game Six win, and then on Sunday when losing in double OT vs. a stubborn Ottawa side. The Senators are more resolute than the Isles partly because they have a stopper in goal with Craig Anderson, who stonewalled the Pens in Game Three and is always at his best at home at Scotiabank Place, where he posted a 1.67 GAA this season. Ottawa also has C Jason Spezza also now back in the lineup after a long injury absence, and Anderson rates an edge on pens counterpart Tomas Vokoun. The Sens don't look like they're going to disappear anytime soon in this series. Play Senators on Money Line

Pick
(959) Chicago Cubs
Analysis
We're going into the teeth of a win streak as the Pirates have taken 9 of their past 11. But they're cutting it close in recent wins, and now must cope with their nemesis, Cub starter, Jeff Samardzija, who is 4-0 with an 0.92 career ERA vs. the Bucs, and even better (0.69 ERA) at PNC Park. Included was a stellar opening-day effort at Pittsburgh when pitching 2-hit, shutout ball through 8 innings while striking out 9 in an eventual 2-0 Cubs win. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Francisco Liriano makes his third start since returning from the DL, but he hasn't lasted past the sixth inning yet, and the Bucs are probably minus closer Jason Grilli tonight after a laborious 35-pitch ninth inning in Tuesday's 5-4 win, only Pittsburgh's third in its last ten at home vs. Chicago Play Cubs on Money Line

Pick
(957) Washington Nationals
Analysis
After opening their roadtrip with a series loss against the Dodgers, the Nationals won their first two games in San Diego but since then, the offense has been completely shut down and they have lost four straight. I expect Washington to come back strong today before heading home with a weekend series against the Phillies. The Nationals have scored just seven runs during their skid but that should improve here while the pitching remains strong behind Gio Gonzalez. He opened his road slate with two poor starts as he allowed five runs in four innings against the Mets and Braves but he has rebounded with two quality starts in his last two road outings sandwiched around seven shutout innings against the Cubs. He has a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts and pitching on the road again should be no issue as Washington has thrived on the highway when he is on the hill, going 18-5 in his last 23 road starts. Three of his last four starts against the Giants have been quality outings and he has posted a 2.36 ERA in those four games. San Francisco had dropped three straight before Washington came to town and it has now won four in a row at home to improve to 17-7 on the season and that is a big reason we are getting a solid line on the road team. Starting pitching has surprisingly been a problem for the Giants and they have a 5.69 ERA over their last 10 games with Madison Bumgarner chipping in on those issues. He is coming off a start where he allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings at Colorado and he has a 6.62 ERA over his last three games. The Giants are 1-6 in Bumgarner's last seven starts as a home favorite of -150 or less. 9* (957) Washington Nationals

Pick
(504) Miami Heat
Analysis
I played against Miami in its first half in Game One in the series against Chicago and it not only didn't cover the half but lost the game outright. The Heat went on to win the next four games to take the series but the last thing they want is to lose Game One again as the challenge to come back from that will be more difficult. Miami was off for over a week before taking on Chicago and it will have been off for a week leading up to this series and while rustiness can be attributed to the Game One loss against the Bulls, I feel they have learned from that mistake and will come out a much different team this time around. Indiana took care of New York in six games after taking out Atlanta in six games as well. The Pacers were 6-0 at home but their road woes continued as they went just 2-4 on the highway with all four of those losses coming by double-digits. This same comparison can be said about the season series as Indiana defeated Miami in the first two meetings but both of those games were at home and Miami was able to return the favor with a 14-point win in the third and final regular season meeting. I fully expect the Heat to come out as if this is an elimination game. The Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record and while Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a win, it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* (504) Miami Heat

Pick
(973) Seattle Mariners
Analysis
We made a bad call on the Mariners last night but are expecting a much better result tonight as we are actually getting a better line with what I feel is a better pitching matchup. Seattle has dropped five straight games as the pitching has been shellacked, allowing an average of 7.8 rpg over that stretch. Still, Seattle is 26-10 in its last 36 games against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. The losing streak started with Brandon Maurer's last start but it was hardly his fault. He tossed a quality start against the Indians but Seattle allowed a three-run walkoff homerun in the 10th inning. The rookie got off to a tough start as he allowed six runs in each of his first two starts but he has posted a 3.71 ERA in his six starts since then, allowing three runs or fewer five times with four of those resulting in quality outings. He has not received a lot of run support so the wins are not coming but the Mariners did score six runs in his first outing against the Angels when he pitched 6.1 innings of shutout baseball. The Angels have won three straight games which matches a season high showing how bad of a season it has been in Los Angeles. The offense has exploded for 30 runs during this current winning streak but I expect the bats to be held in check tonight. The Angels are 4-16 this season against teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.25 or better while going 3-9 in their last 12 games as home favorites between -175 and -200. C.J. Wilson has done pretty much everything a starting pitcher can be asked to do but the Angels are just 4-5 in his nine starts including losses in three straight. He is getting limited run support and pitching under the lights has been his struggle as he has a 4.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six starts with Los Angeles going 1-5 in those games. 9* (973) Seattle Mariners

Pick
(978) Chicago White Sox
Analysis
Home Field Crusher: White Sox
Chicago got things turned around on their recent road trip, winning 4 in a row during one stretch as a dog in each game. Boston comes to town winding down a 9-game road trip. The White Sox are 17-7 in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Ace Clay Buchholz (6-0, 1.78 ERA) is on the mound but his ERA is climbing a bit since the controversy in Toronto on whether he is doctoring the ball. He is winless in his last three starts with a 3.43 ERA. Chicago has a strong lefty of its own in Hector Santiago (2.78 ERA), striking out 33 in 35+ innings. Santiago had his chance to cement a role in the White Sox starting rotation and Boston has holes in the bottom part lineup, as we saw in the lineup, a 3-1 Chicago win. Play the White Sox.

Pick
Over
Analysis
Toronto is a great offensive park and a pair of struggling pitchers go. The Rays come to town with a strong offense, Top 10 in runs, on base and slugging. But Tampa Bay righty Jeremy Hellickson (5.82 ERA) is laboring and in his last three starts he has a 7.91 ERA. Hellickson has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Hellickson endured his worst outing of the season but managed to escape with the win Friday night against the Orioles. The right-hander was charged with a season-high eight runs and 10 hits in 7 2/3 innings. He struck out four and walked one in a 12-10 victory. This team is on a 19-5-2 run over the total and the over is 11-2-3 in the Rays last 16 road games. Toronto goes with soft ball thrower Mark Buehrle (1-3,, 6.33 ERA), who made a mistake coming into the AL at this stage of his career. The over is 11-5-1 in the Blue Jays last 17 against the AL East and the over is 8-0 in the Blue Jays last 8 on astroturf. Play the Rays/Blue Jays over the total.

Pick
(969) New York Yankees
Analysis
AL East Game of the Month: Yankees.
The Yankees are 26-10 against the AL East and on a 10-3 run. Baltimore Jason Hammel has a 5-2 record, but has been awful with a 5.72 ERA allowing 79 base runners in 50 innings. Hammel endured another rough outing as he picked up his second loss of the season Friday night against the Rays. The right-hander was charged with a season-high seven runs and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings of work. He struck out four and walked two in a 12-10 defeat. His ERA has increased from 4.10 to 5.72 after allowing 13 runs and 18 hits over his last two starts. Baltimore has a losing record at home and the Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. The Yankees have a winning road record and they have a veteran ace going in Hiroki Kuroda (6-2, 1.99 ERA) who is red hot, with a 1.59 ERA his last three starts. He he thrown 24 innings in his career against Baltimore with a 2-1 record and a 1.85 ERA. And the Yankees are 23-10 in the last 33 meetings in Baltimore. Play the NY Yankees.

Pick
Under
Analysis
Pittsburgh won in Games 1 and 2, 4-1 and 4-3, and it's clear Ottawa doesn't have the offensive firepower to get into a shootout with the Penguins. So they went to their strength in Game 3, slowing the pace down, and pulled out a 2-1 win in OT. Ottawa is 27th in the NHL in goals scored and 20th on the power play. Their game is to slow it down to a crawl, 2nd in the NHL in goals allowed and tops in penalty killing. The Senators went 0 for 5 on the power play in Game 1 and are just 2 for 22 with the man advantage against Pittsburgh this season. Pittsburgh is also terrific on defense, 12th in the league in goals allowed. Ottawa improved to 3-0 at home in this postseason where they play their best defense and look for another low scoring battle. Play Ottawa/Pittsburgh Game 4 Under the Total.

Pick
(27) Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis
At 7:30 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (27) versus the Ottawa Senators (28) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Pittsburgh (42-14-1-0) was on the Power Play with under 30 seconds to go while enjoying a 1-0 lead before giving up a game-tying short-handed goal that sent Game Three of this series into overtime before the Senators scored a goal to stay alive in this series back on Sunday. While the boxscore suggests this was a close game, my qualitative judgment of this contest was that the Penguins controlled most of the action. After the shock of this loss, look for Pittsburgh to bounce-back to seize control of this series by a 3-1 margin with two impending games back on their home ice. The Penguins have won 22 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, Pittsburgh has won 40 of their last 52 games after holding their last opponent to two goals or less. And while Ottawa is 18-6-1-2 at home this season, the Penguins have won 22 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.

Ottawa (30-20-2-4) has lost 7 of their last 10 games played with two days of rest. The Senators actually won the face-off battle in Game Three by a 50-47 margin which was a bit of a surprise for a team that was just 21st in the league by wining only 49.2% of their face-offs in the regular season. It is unlikely they will continue to win a majority of face-offs against this Pittsburgh team that was 7th in the NHL by winning 51.5% of their face-offs. Furthermore, the Senators have lost 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, Ottawa has lost 5 of these contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 105-33 combined angle for this situation. 25* NHL Second Round Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the money line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (27) versus the Ottawa Senators (28) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Pick
Under
Analysis
At 7:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (961) and the Miami Marlins (962) while listing both starting pitchers Cliff Lee and Kevin Slowey. Philadelphia (22-24) evened this series at a game apiece yesterday with their 7-3 victory. The Phillies have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total following a victory. Philadelphia has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored in the -151 to -200 price range. They send out Lee who is 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP so far this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road this year with his 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .211 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 3.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .274 opponent's batting average. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with his splits last year where he had a 2.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .245 opponent's batting average as compared to his 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .265 opponent's batting average when at home. The Phillies have played 8 oft their last 9 road games with Lee on the mound. Additionally, the Under is a decisive 16-4-1 in Marlins' last 21 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.

Miami (13-33) has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Marlins have also played 5 straight home games with the Total set at 6.5 or lower. They counter with Kevin Slowey who is 1-4 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP so far this season. The right-hander is looking to bounce-back from allowing six earned runs in 3 innings of work against Arizona. Slowey has been making it difficult on opposing hitters given his opponent's Batting Average for the line drives he is Allowing Into Play (LD BABIP*) of .590 is much lower than the Marlins' defensive LD BABIP of .672. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. He should rebound with a good outing against this Phillies team that has played 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 64-15-2 combined angle for this situation. 20* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (961) and the Miami Marlins (962) while listing both starting pitchers Cliff Lee and Kevin Slowey. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

* LD BABIP: (Opponent) Batting Average for (line drive) Balls put Into Play -- We look to this metric since line drives are typically the result of the batter "winning" the battle between hitter and pitcher and getting their desired contact with the baseball. Batters can more likely "place" these line drives into open spaces for base hits. This is the opposite argument that we make with ground balls (GB BABIP). We make this distinction because (a) batters are not hoping to make ground ball contact so they are not "placing" these batted balls, and (b) getting ground balls through the infield are more dependent on the infield's defensive positioning. We compare a pitcher's opponent LD BABIP to his team's defensive LD BABIP to neutralize the varying qualities of team-to-team defense. Pitchers with higher LD BABIPs than their team's overall defensive LD BABIP are worrisome while pitchers with lower LD BABIPs than their team's overall defensive LD BABIP have relatively upside since they are less likely to be losing this "hitter v. pitcher" battle.

Pick
(504) Miami Heat
Analysis
At 8:30 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (504) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (503) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Miami (74-17) should have a few extra reasons to be motivated to make a statement in the opening game of this series to determine who will represent the East in the NBA Finals. First of all, the Pacers beat the Heat in two of their three meetings in the regular season -- so Miami will be on alert especially considering that they were also losing their playoff series with the Indiana last season by a 2-1 margin before closing that series out in six games. Secondly, LeBron James found the opportunity to get a chip on his shoulder in preparation of this series after Indiana's head coach Frank Vogel claimed that the Heat were "just another team" in his club's playoff path. Miami has had a week off after they disposed of the Bulls by a 94-91 score as a 14-point favorite to end that series in five games. The Heat should not be rusty with the long break as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games with at least three days of rest. The week off should certainly help Dwyane Wade get healthier with his knee. Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

Indiana (57-36) struggles when on the road where they are only 21-25 this season. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, while the Heat are a dominant 41-5 at home this year, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Together, these team trends produce our specific 34-10 ATS combined angle for this situation. There is a strain of thought that believes that Game One offers the best chance for a road team to steal a game against a favorite that comes off a big break -- as Chicago did against this Miami team last round. However, another under-appreciated counter dynamic is that road teams will sometimes let up in the second half of an opening game if falling behind in order to save energy for a bigger push in Game Two with the logic being that their realistic goal is to return home with the series split at a game apiece. Look for the Heat to enjoy a big game tonight to avoid losing the opening game of a playoff series for the second straight time against this Pacers team that has gotten under their skin. Lastly, while Indiana enjoyed a whopping 46-18 free throw attempt advantage in their clinching 106-99 Game Six victory versus the Knicks last Saturday -- this helps place them into an historical "play-against" angle that has been 68% effective since 1996. Underdogs that shoot 33-36.5% from behind the arc (Indiana: 34.2%) who shot at least 20 more free throws against their last opponent now facing a team that holds their opponents to a 33-36.5% shooting percentage from 3-point land (Miami defense: 34.5%) have then failed to cover the point spread in 48 of the last 71 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Wednesday Night Special Feature with the Miami Heat (504) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (503) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Pick
(958) San Francisco Giants
Analysis
At 3:45 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money line on the San Francisco Giants (958) versus the Washington Nationals (957) while listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Gio Gonzalez. San Francisco (26-20) has won the first two games of this series after their 4-2 victory in extra innings yesterday. The Giants have won 5 straight home games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. They send out Bumgarner who is 4-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP this season. The left-hander looks to rebound from a rough outing where he pitched only 4 2/3 innings of work in Colorado where he allowed seven earned runs (nine total). Bumgarner should bounce-back with a strong outing as seven of his nine starts this season have been Quality Starts. Bumgarner was much better at home last year where he enjoyed a 2.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .219 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .249 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Giants have won a decisive 23 of their last 30 home games with Bumgarner pitching as a favorite. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.

Washington (23-23) has lost four straight games -- and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after dropping the first two games of a series. The Nationals have also lost 6 straight road games as an underdog. They counter with Gio Gonzalez who is 3-2 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP so far this season. The lefty has struggled on the road with a 6.10 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and .271 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 2.61 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .151 opponent's batting average when at home. Additionally, Gonzalez has not been as effective during day games where he owns a 5.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .221 opponent's batting average as compared to his 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .190 opponent's batting average at night. Lastly, Washington has lost 12 of their last 17 games in San Francisco. Together, these team trends produce our specific 54-14 combined angle for this situation. 20* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money line on the San Francisco Giants (958) versus the Washington Nationals (957) while listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

Pick
(504) Miami Heat
Analysis
I'm laying the points in Game 1 with the Miami Heat. When Miami lost Game 1 of their series against the Bulls we heard they were "rusty." I'm not "buying." As I stated in that series, teams with a week or more layoff in the postseason have been a solid "play-on" against teams with less time off before Game 1. I also believe the results from the loss to the Bulls will further motivate the Heat tonight, keeping them focused on the task at hand. Indiana enters with a 2-4 SU road record in the playoffs. The four losses came by 10, 26, 11, and 21 points. And while Indiana beat Miami in Indianapolis twice this season, they lost 105-91 in South Beach. I'm expecting more of the same in this one. The Pacers are on a 2-6 ATS road slide, while the Heat are on a 13-4 ATS run, overall, and 6-0 ATS off a spread loss. I'm laying the points with the Heat on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick
(969) New York Yankees
Analysis
I'm backing the NY Yankees on Wednesday night. It's been a tough May for Baltimore hurler Jason Hammel. He enters tonight's start having been bombed for 17 earned runs and 34 base runners in 3 starts, spanning just 14 2/3 IP. Hammel has been battered by the Yankees in his 15 career appearances against them and I expect more of the same in this one. New York will counter with "Mr. Dependable," Hiroki Kuroda. The Yankee righty is dominant in 2013 and he's had no trouble at all in his 3 career starts against the Orioles. The Yanks are 16-5 when Kuroda goes on 4 days rest. They're 7-1 in his last 8, overall, and 5-0 when he's listed as a favorite. And despite last night's win, the O's are just 1-7 in their last 8 at home. Look for NY to extend their run to 25-11 in Baltimore. I'm backing the Yankees on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick
(971) Detroit Tigers
Analysis
I'm playing on DETROIT. I'm aware that the Indians have enjoyed some success against Verlander and against some of baseball's other elite starters. That won't prevent me from backing Verlander and the Tigers here though. Despite struggling his last two starts, Verlander still has a respectable 3.17 ERA. He's still got 60 Ks (vs. 20 walks) in 54 innings and he's still only allowed two home runs all season. He's 3-2 in five road starts with 37 K's vs. 10 walks, allowing a single home run. On the other hand, Jimenez has allowed four home runs in four home starts. In those games, he's 1-2 with a terrible 9.72 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. He's averaging only 4 2/3 innings in his road starts. While he did lose at Detroit vs. the Indians a couple of weeks ago, Verlander tossed seven shutout innings in his last start here at Cleveland, a 4-0 victory last September. (That marked his 10th consecutive start at Cleveland where Verlander went a minimum of six innings and allowed four or fewer earned runs.) After getting roughed up last time out Verlander had this to say: "It wasn't much of a night to begin with, but I'd definitely say the whole game kind of was a carryover from my last start. I'm not somebody who is going to go home and pout about this; I'm somebody who is going to figure it out and figure it out in a hurry.'' I expect Verlander to "figure it out," en route to the the Tigers moving to 4-1 their last here at Cleveland. 9* personal favorite

Pick
(27) Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Senators, who have been dealing with adversity all season, deserve a lot of credit for even getting this far. That said, I believe they're in over their heads here. The Penguins are the most talented team in the East, if not the league. They've also been playing like it for many weeks now. Crosby is likely the best player in the world - but this Pittsburgh team was so good that it still rolled along without him in the lineup. True, the Sens did rally to win Game 3 here at Ottawa. However, the Pens have been superb on the road all season. (They're 20-8 away from Pittsburgh, outscoring teams by a 3.6 to 2.9 margin.) They know they can't afford to let this series drag on, particularly after seeing the Bruins go up 3-0 in their series last night. “I think every game the more the series goes on the more important each one gets. You can see the desperation they have. They want to make sure it's 2-2 going back to Pittsburgh and obviously we know the scenario is to come here and get one of two on the road and go back home with a chance to finish off the series would be great. I don't think we have to change anything to do that. Our desperation's been there, our compete level has been there and we believe that if we play the same way as last game and limit a few mistakes that we have a good chance of getting the win." The Pens are 58-37 (+6.8) the past few seasons when playing a team that beat them in the last meeting. During that time, they're also 29-13 (+10.2) when playing with two day's rest in between games. I expect them to improve on those stats, taking a strangle-hold on the series along the way. 9* main event

Pick
Under
Analysis
I'm playing on Indiana and Miami to finish UNDER the total. I played on the "under" in Game 1 of Miami's series vs. Chicago. The Heat were dealing with a long layoff and I felt that there may be some rust factor. Sure enough, Miami managed only 86 points, the game finishing in the 170s. Once again, the Heat are contending with a long layoff. This time, while the layoff hasn't been as long at it has been for the Heat, the Pacers are also in a similar boat. They haven't played since Saturday. Note that the UNDER is 11-5 the past few seasons, when the Pacers had played with three or more day's rest in between games, 4-2 this season. The Pacers have also seen the UNDER go 3-1 when listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Going back further finds the UNDER at 18-9 the last 27 times that they were in that role. When these teams met in the playoffs last season, the first three games of their series all finished below the total. They had combined scores of 181, 153 and 169. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip

Pick
Over
Analysis
503 Indiana 57-36 504 Miami 74-17 TV TNT Game of the series low total has been posted. In fact teams have managed to go over 5 of last 6. Looks like a break out game to us. Take Ind/Mia Over

Pick
(977) Boston Red Sox
Analysis
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 8:05 ET.

Wednesday night's game between the Red Sox and White Sox was supposed to feature Clay Buchholz (6-0, 1.78 ERA) vs Chris Sale (5-2, 2.53). Sale is 4-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last five starts and hasn't allowed a run in 23 straight innings. His six-start streak of lasting at least seven while allowing fewer than three earned runs is the longest by a White Sox starter since Mark Buehrle's seven-start run in 2007. However, Chicago announced Tuesday that Sale had been scratched from this start due to mild tendinitis in his shoulder and the White Sox will send Hector Santiago to the mound in his place. This sure seems like a big break for the Red Sox, as Santiago will be making the start on just three days' rest. I realize that he was only around long enough to throw 80 pitches over 3.1 innings in his Saturday start in Anaheim and that didn't wear him out but I still view this as “bad news” for Chicago fans (bettors). The left-hander opened the season in the bullpen and has struggled in his last two starts, allowing nine runs (six earned) and 12 hits in nine total innings (that's 6.00 ERA in back-to-back Chicago losses). He has never started against Boston, with only one relief appearance against them (July 18, 2012), when he allowed two ERs in three innings. After losing the first two games of this series, Boston will be relieved NOT to have to face the red-hot Sale and are buoyed by the fact that Buchholz is on the mound. Yes, he's winless in his last three starts but he owns a respectable ERA of 3.43 in those outings, with Boston winning two of the three. Buchholz collapsed right along with the entire Boston team last year, ending the 2012 season by going 0-5 with a 5.62 ERA in his final eight outings (finished the season, 11-8 with a 4.56 ERA). However, Buchholz was brilliant in opening the 2013 season by going 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA in his first six starts! Even after what could be called a “mini-slump” these last three starts, he enters tonight's game 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA through nine starts (team is 8-1), allowing only 44 hits in his 65.2 innings. Buchholz has a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts against Chicago and I expect an excellent effort here, as Boston salvages one win in its visit to U.S. Cellular Field.

Good luck...Larry

Pick
(966) Texas Rangers
Analysis
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Tex Rangers at 2:05 ET.

The A's have taken the first two of this three-game series at Texas and look to complete a road sweep in Arlington this afternoon, for the first time since September 14-16, 2009. Oakland won handily on Monday (9-2), then last night, rookie Dan Straily outdueled Yu Darvish in a 1-0 victory. Straily entered the game with a 7.27 ERA in five 2013 starts but was the latest A's starter to pitch well, giving up only two singles while facing 22 batters in seven innings. Oakland has now won five straight behind a starting rotation that has a 1.91 ERA over that span. Jarrod Parker gets the nod today and the A's are hoping his recent two starts are a sign that he's rounding into last year's form. Parker was 13-8 (3.47 ERA) in 29 starts (A's were 17-12) as a rookie last year but he opened 1-5 with a 7.34 ERA after seven starts (team was 2-5). Parker has seen the A's win his last two starts (he's 1-0), allowing seven hits and four ERs over 13.1 innings (that's an ERA of 2.70). However, I'm not sure I'm convinced after just two outings. I will note that he went 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts against the Rangers in 2012 but I'll back the Rangers here at home, who are trying to avoid the dreaded home sweep. Rookie Nick Tepesch has been scratched due to a blister on his right middle finger and Ross Wolf will make his season debut in his place. Wolf made 11 appearances for Oakland when he last pitched in the big leagues in 2010 (11 relief appearances with no record and a 4.26 ERA) and will be making his first career major league start here, after 25 relief appearances. He was 1-1 with a 1.85 ERA in six starts for Texas in Triple-A action and will pitch in front of a team which is 14-7 at home, averaging 5.14 RPG and is looking to avoid a home sweep at the hands of a team which won the AL West last year, after Texas had won it the previous two, on its way to back-to-back World Series trips. The Rangers rise to the challenge and Wolf just may get a win in his first career start in “the bigs.”

Good luck...Larry

Pick
Over
Analysis
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner (total) is on StL/SD Over at 10:10 ET.

Think the Cards miss Albert? Not! The team came a SINGLE victory shy of making the World Series last year (led the Giants 3-1 in the NLCS, before losing three in a row) and currently own MLB's best record at 29-16. The Cards rank sixth in team BA (.266) and are near the top in runs scored (4.73 per). The starting staff owns MLB's lowest ERA (2.64) and the Cards top the majors in one of MLB's most revealing stats, run-differential, at plus-57. The Cards and Padres play the rubber game of a three-game set tonight, after San Diego won 4-2 Monday and St Louis 10-2, last night. The Padres have faced some of the best pitchers in the NL lately, beating Washington's Jordan Zimmermann on Saturday and St Louis' Shelby Miller in the series opener Monday but could very well get some 'relief' tonight, as the Cards send Tyler Lyons to the mound to make his major league debut. With injuries to Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia, Lyons gets his chance after the left-hander went 2-1 with a 4.47 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A. "We talked about everything," St Louis manager Mike Matheny said. "Lyons is the right guy right now." Does that sound like confidence to you? It doesn't to me. The Padres don't own a potent lineup but the team averages 4.12 RPG in its 24 home games this season and San Diego has won 12 of its last 16 here at home. The Padres counter the Cards' Lyons with a rookie of their own, sending Burch Smith to the mound. He's getting a third turn in the rotation with Clayton Richard on the disabled list recovering from an intestinal virus. Smith's major league debut started well back on May 11, as he tossed a perfect first inning with two strikeouts. However, it was all downhill from there, as he was unable to get a SINGLE out in the second inning and was removed after allowing SIX runs (all earned), on five hits (one HR) and two walks at Tampa Bay. Making his second career start this past Friday against Washington, he allowed five ERs on six hits (three HRs) over 5.1 innings of a 6-5 loss. Clayton Richard is expected to rejoin the rotation soon and my guess is it can't come soon enough for the Padres. The saying goes, “the third time is the charm” but in his 6.1 innings (over two starts), Burch has allowed 11 hits (4 HRs) and 11 ERs for a 15.63 ERA. Here he faces a St Louis team which is 15-8 on the road, averaging 5.09 RPG. And this total opened 7 1/2??

Good luck...Larry

Pick
(964) San Diego Padres
Analysis
Burch Smith has been annihilated in his first two starts, the Cardinals are one of the best and most popular betting teams, and the game is close to pick 'em. Loads of St. Louis tickets sure to come here. I normally like to bet on southpaws in their first trips around the majors, and Tyler Lyons is making his debut here. He throws 89-91, but his out pitch is a low 80''s slider down in the zone. Also throws a changeup and a slow curve. Lyons has pitched pretty well at AAA, and his mediocre ERA is mostly a result of a .366 BABIP. As for Smith, even though the box score doesn't show it, I thought he was much better in his second start. Lots of swings and misses with his fastball and change. The curve is crap and he needs to stay away from that right now. Smith's xFIP which normalizes the home run rate per fly ball, was actually really good, 2.49. I think bettors will flock t bet against Smith, but I will back him here. Public fade of the Cardinals, I'm on the Padres.

Pick
(928) Los Angeles Angels
Analysis
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Seattle Mariners. If the Angels are going to turn things around, this week would be a great time to start. A little more than 1/4 of the way through the season, and L.A. is roughly a dozen games behind the first-place Rangers, who are looking as good as the Angels are looking bad. According to the front office, there's no panic going on in Anaheim - yet - but with the next sixteen games featuring matchups with the Mariners (2), Royals (4), Dodgers (4), Astros (4), and Cubs (2) and ten of those being at home, this would seem like the ideal stretch to begin a winning streak. All of the under-achievers on the Angels roster should probably take a page out of righthander Jerome Williams' book. Williams - who takes the mound tonight for his 12th appearance and fourth start, is about as anonymous a player as there is on this team, but all he's done is fill in when needed and put up some pretty impressive numbers in the process (2-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP). Although both Jered Weaver (elbow) and Tommy Hanson (personal) are expected back soon, the Angels might be smart to find a way to keep Williams in the mix. He was particularly impressive in his last two starts, both against the White Sox, and he's had success in his career vs. the M's going 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in just over 31 innings against them. In contrast, Aaron Harang has an 8.43 Road ERA this year, and a lifetime mark of 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA (and a 2.03 WHIP) vs. the Angels in his starts. Take the Angels. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.